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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/gyman122 on 2023-11-04 17:15:23.
I listen to a lot of football podcasts, I hear a lot of hemming and hawing about how things look dysfunctional and they don’t have receiver talent, but their offensive line is good and Pacheco is good and nobody can quite put their finger on what’s wrong with this team, etc. Much of that is not true.
Last season, the Chiefs were 10th in rushing EPA/play and 6th in rushing success rate. Those numbers have plummeted. So far this season, they are 25th in rushing EPA/play and 31st in rushing success rate.
Last season, they were 9th in rushing DVOA, and this season I do not know because something weird is going on with Football Outsiders, they’re called FTNFantasy now, and I don’t know how to check. But rest assured, I can almost guarantee it’s near the bottom of the league considering the low quality of run defenses they’ve played.
At what point is the simplest answer the correct answer, their offense has taken a step back despite excellent, improved protection and nearly identical receiving talent because their run game just sucks now? Receivers don’t get open because defenses are always in nickel and dime because they can’t run on light boxes, whereas last year they were the best team in the league at crushing light boxes with 12/13 personnel.
Why is this happening? Lots of reasons probably:
- Wylie and Brown Jr. were much better run blockers than Taylor and Smith, the Chiefs clearly have no faith in them in the running game.
- Also ditched Michael Burton this year, who didn’t play much but had a role in short yardage (where they are awful this year).
- The Jody Fortson injury fucks up their ability to run 13 personnel the way they did so effectively last year.
- They are running way less under center this year.
Just wanted to clear this up because I’m seeing a lot of misinformation.