This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/puzzical on 2026-04-23 20:21:53+00:00.
For a variety of reasons we all hate preseason polls. One of these reasons is some teams seem to be perpetually over ranked. To test whether this was just confirmation bias I took the AP preseason and final polls from every season since 2000 (includes 2000) and used it to calculate which teams are over-ranked and under-ranked in that time frame. Hopefully this analysis will show that X school you hate is one of them, and you can use it win arguments with fans of that stupid school for fake internet points. In case you are wondering I actually started with calculating metrics and didn’t take results I wanted and make metrics to match. Shocking I know.
Methodology
To determine whether a team was over/under-ranked in a given season I calculated a Ranking Score by subtracting their final rank from their preseason rank Only using the AP poll. If a team was unranked to start the year I said they started at rank 26 and the same is true for if they finished unranked. For example, if a team was unranked to start the season but finished 12 they would get a Ranking Score of 26-12=14 for that season. If a team was ranked 10 to start the season and finished unranked they would get a Ranking Score of 10-26=-16. This means negative scores are given to seasons where a team end ranked below were they started and positive scores for when they finished ranked above where they started. I the summed this score for all 26 seasons in my data set and viola that team has a Total Ranking Score.
This is not a perfect metric, nothing is, the chief problem being unranked teams are considered the same rank. There was no easy way around this so I simple choose to ignore this problem. I apologize to everyone who hates FSU and wants the 2024 season to score worse than -16. <whispers\> “you’re still going to like the results”. If you have a better way to address this, good for you, I probably won’t redo the analysis.
Results
Here are the results in table form for every FBS school has either finished or ended the season ranked:
(Notes of column titles:
Total Ranking Score = See description in methodology
Column 3 = number of seasons a team was ranked at the end of the season
Column 4 = number of seasons a team was ranked at the start of the season
Column 5 = number of seasons a team was ranked in either or both the final and preseason poll
Column 6 = Column 3/ Column 4
Column 7 = Column 2/ Column 5
Conference = Current Conference
| School | Total Ranking Score | Number Ranked at End | Number Ranked at Start | Number Ranked Start or Finish | NumRankedEnd / NumRankedStart | Total Ranking Score / NumRankedStartorEnd | Conference | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 4.00 | MW | Colorado |
| Alabama | -7 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 1.00 | -0.32 | SEC | Alabama |
| App State | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 7.00 | SBC | North Carolina |
| Arizona | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.00 | 3.25 | Big12 | Arizona |
| Arkansas | -5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0.67 | -0.63 | SEC | Arkansas |
| Army | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | NA | 6.00 | AAC | New York |
| ASU | -2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 0.63 | -0.17 | Big12 | Arizona |
| Auburn | -21 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 0.86 | -1.17 | SEC | Alabama |
| Ball State | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 3.00 | MAC | Indiana |
| Baylor | 35 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 1.50 | 4.38 | Big12 | Texas |
| BC | 36 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5.00 | 7.20 | ACC | Massachusetts |
| Boise State | 91 | 14 | 10 | 19 | 1.40 | 4.79 | PAC | Idaho |
| Bowling Green | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 3.00 | MAC | Ohio |
| Buffalo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 1.00 | MAC | New York |
| BYU | 71 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 3.00 | 7.10 | Big12 | Utah |
| Cal | -36 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0.60 | -7.20 | ACC | California |
| Cincy | 57 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2.67 | 6.33 | Big12 | Ohio |
| Clemson | -61 | 19 | 19 | 24 | 1.00 | -2.54 | ACC | South Carolina |
| CMU | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 3.00 | MAC | Michigan |
| Colorado | 12 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2.00 | 2.40 | Big12 | Colorado |
| Costal Carolina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | 4.00 | SBC | South Carolina |
| CSU | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 2.33 | PAC | Colorado |
| Duke | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 3.00 | ACC | North Carolina |
| Florida | -70 | 14 | 19 | 22 | 0.74 | -3.18 | SEC | Florida |
| Fresno State | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3.00 | 3.00 | PAC | California |
| FSU | -120 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 0.80 | -5.45 | ACC | Florida |
| Georgia | -63 | 21 | 25 | 26 | 0.84 | -2.42 | SEC | Georgia |
| GT | -1 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.25 | -0.14 | ACC | Georgia |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 4.00 | MW | Hawaii |
| Houston | 26 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2.00 | 4.33 | Big12 | Texas |
| Illinois | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.00 | 0.83 | Big10 | Illinois |
| Indiana | 40 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.50 | 10.00 | Big10 | Indiana |
| Iowa | 52 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 1.09 | 3.06 | Big10 | Iowa |
| ISU | -2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0.75 | -0.33 | Big12 | Iowa |
| JMU | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 7.00 | SBC | Virginia |
| Kansas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.67 | 1.00 | Big12 | Kansas |
| Kentucky | 16 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.00 | 5.33 | SEC | Kentucky |
| KSU | -5 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 0.80 | -0.38 | Big12 | Kansas |
| Liberty | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | NA | 5.00 | CUSA | Virginia |
| Louisiana | 18 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.00 | 9.00 | SBC | Louisiana |
| Louisville | 7 | 9 | 8 | 12 | NA | 0.58 | ACC | Kentucky |
| LSU | -80 | 19 | 24 | 26 | 0.79 | -3.08 | SEC | Louisiana |
| Marshall | -2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.00 | -1.00 | SBC | West Virginia |
| Maryland | 20 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1.33 | 4.00 | ACC | Maryland |
| Memphis | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | NA | 3.00 | AAC | Tennessee |
| Miami (FL) | -48 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 0.86 | -2.82 | ACC | Florida |
| Miami (OH) | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 16.00 | MAC | Ohio |
| Michigan | -78 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 0.89 | -3.55 | Big10 | Michigan |
| Minnesota | 24 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.00 | 6.00 | Big10 | Minnesota |
| Miss State | 21 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.67 | 2.63 | SEC | Mississippi |
| Missouri | 40 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 1.17 | 4.00 | SEC | Missouri |
| MSU | 3 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 0.80 | 0.20 | Big10 | Michigan |
| Navy | 19 | 4 | 0 | 4 | NA | 4.75 | AAC | Maryland |
| NCST | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.67 | 0.50 | ACC | North Carolina |
| Nebraska | -68 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 0.67 | -4.86 | Big10 | Nebraska |
| Nevada | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 15.00 | MW | Nevada |
| NIU | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 4.00 | MW | Illinois |
| Northwestern | 28 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2.50 | 4.00 | Big10 | Illinois |
| Notre Dame | -2 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 0.94 | -0.09 | IND | Indiana |
| Ohio St | -29 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 0.88 | -1.12 | Big10 | Ohio |
| Oklahoma | -78 | 22 | 26 | 26 | 0.85 | -3.00 | SEC | Oklahoma |
| Ok St | 12 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 1.00 | 0.80 | Big12 | Oklahoma |
| Ole Miss | 34 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 1.00 | 2.83 | SEC | Mississippi |
| Oregon | 13 | 18 | 21 | 24 | 0.86 | 0.54 | Big10 | Oregon |
| OSU | 25 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 1.50 | 2.50 | PAC | Oregon |
| Pitt | -4 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 1.00 | -0.44 | ACC | Pennsylvania |
| PSU | 2 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 0.80 | 0.11 | Big10 | Pennsylvania |
| Purdue | -11 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.50 | -2.75 | Big10 | Indiana |
| Rutgers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | 2.00 | Big10 | New Jersey |
| S Miss | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | 1.50 | SBC | Mississippi |
| San Jose | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | NA | 3.50 | MW | California |
| S Car | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 1.14 | 0.09 | SEC | South Carolina |
| SDSU | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | NA | 1.00 | PAC | California |
| SMU | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.00 | 2.67 | ACC | Texas |
| Stanford | 18 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 0.89 | 1.64 | ACC | California |
| Syracuse | 25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3.00 | 6.25 | ACC | New York |
| TAMU | -52 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 0.46 | -3.25 | SEC | Texas |
| TCU | 63 | 14 | 13 | 20 | 1.08 | 3.15 | Big12 | Texas |
| Tennessee | -56 | 10 | 16 | 17 | 0.63 | -3.29 | SEC | Tennessee |
| Texas | -72 | 18 | 21 | 22 | 0.86 | -3.27 | SEC | Texas |
| Texas Tech | 33 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1.50 | 4.71 | Big12 | Texas |
| Toledo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 3.00 | MAC | Ohio |
| Troy | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 7.00 | SBC | Alabama |
| Tulane | 23 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.00 | 7.67 | AAC | Louisiana |
| Tulsa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 2.00 | AAC | Oklahoma |
| UCF | 39 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1.67 | 6.50 | Big12 | Florida |
| UCLA | -27 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0.67 | -3.38 | Big10 | California |
| UNC | -30 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0.29 | -3.75 | ACC | North Carolina |
| UNLV | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 3.00 | MW | Nevada |
| UNT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 2.00 | AAC | Texas |
| USC | -75 | 16 | 23 | 24 | 0.70 | -3.13 | Big10 | California |
| USF | -2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.00 | -0.67 | AAC | Florida |
| Utah | 52 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 1.38 | 3.71 | Big12 | Utah |
| Utah St | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | NA | 5.33 | PAC | Utah |
| UVA | -2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.00 | -0.40 | ACC | Virginia |
| UW | -18 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 0.73 | -1.38 | Big10 | Washington |
| VA Tech | -32 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 0.93 | -2.00 | ACC | Virginia |
| Vanderbilt | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | NA | 5.33 | SEC | Tennessee |
| Wake Forest | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.00 | 3.00 | ACC | North Carolina |
| Wisconsin | -60 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 0.70 | -2.50 | Big10 | Wisconsin |
| WKU | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 2.00 | CUSA | Kentucky |
| WMU | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | NA | 11.00 | MAC | Michigan |
| WSU | 45 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1.33 | 7.50 | PAC | Washington |
| WV | -24 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 1.00 | -1.85 | Big12 | West Virginia |
Discussion and superlatives
Most Under Ranked:
Determined by raw Total Ranking Score
| 1 | Boise State | 91 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | BYU | 71 |
| 3 | TCU | 63 |
| 4 | Cincy | 57 |
| 5 | Utah | 52 |
| 5 | Iowa | 52 |
Most Over Ranked:
Determined by raw Total Ranking Score
| 1 | FSU | -120 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | LSU | -80 |
| 3 | Michigan (Suck it!) | -78 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | -78 |
| 5 | USC (Suck it!) | -75 |
Ranked Too Often
Determined by ratio of seaso…
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