This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/hypton0 on 2023-11-06 16:45:28.
It’s getting to the point in the season where fans can start dreaming up scenarios of how their team can make it to their conference title game. Using the outcome probabilities from my own game model, I have simulated the rest of the Big 12 season 10,000 times.
Here are the current probabilities to make the Big 12 title game:
| Team | Chance to make Title Game |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | 71.6% |
| Texas | 70.1% |
| Oklahoma | 40.3% |
| Kansas State | 7.4% |
| Kansas | 4.7% |
| West Virginia | 4.4% |
| Iowa State | 1.4% |
| Texas Tech | 0.02% |
And here is how the Week 11 Big 12 games affect the title race:
| Home Team | Away Team | Swing % |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | West Virginia | 101.9% |
| TCU | Texas | 91.0% |
| UCF | Oklahoma State | 72.0% |
| Kansas | Texas Tech | 19.2% |
| Kansas State | Baylor | 16.5% |
| BYU | Iowa State | 9.4% |
| Houston | Cincinnati | 3.3% |
What is swing %?
I added up the change in probability of each team in the conference making the title game based on the outcome of each game.
And here is each game with teams where the difference is at least 5%:
| Oklahoma - West Virginia |
|---|
| Team | Oklahoma Win | West Virginia Win |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 49.3% | 0.0% |
| West Virginia | 0.01% | 23.9% |
| Texas | 66.4% | 86.8% |
| Kansas State | 6.3% | 12.4% |
| TCU - Texas |
|---|
| Team | TCU Win | Texas Win |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | 36.0% | 81.4% |
| Oklahoma | 61.1% | 33.4% |
| Kansas State | 14.4% | 5.1% |
| UCF - Oklahoma State |
|---|
| Team | UCF Win | Oklahoma State Win |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | 57.8% | 93.8% |
| Oklahoma | 45.4% | 32.0% |
| Texas | 72.9% | 65.7% |
| Kansas State | 10.0% | 3.2% |
| Kansas - Texas Tech |
|---|
| Team | Kansas Win | Texas Tech Win |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 6.7% | 0.2% |
| Oklahoma | 38.2% | 45.0% |
| Kansas State - Baylor |
|---|
| Team | Kansas State Win | Baylor Win |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| BYU - Iowa State |
|---|
Nobody!
| Houston - Cincinnati |
|---|
Nobody!
If you want to see the current probabilities or play with combinations of games yourself, I made a shiny app to do this.