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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/practicalist on 2023-11-05 12:56:41.
2023 NFL Defensive Line Metrics & Ratings
Another Sunday, and another chance to bust into the pro-football-reference stats and metrics to see if we can gain any insights. This week the goal is to rate all 32 NFL defensive lines based on their ability to get pressure without a blitz AND stop the run. The full article will go into calculations so if you would like to read it you can here: NFL 2023 Defensive Line Ratings & Metrics
So let’s start with the theories, assumption and constants I used in order to generate the Defensive Line scores. The first part of the formula is quite simple as we will assign points for each QB Knockdown, Hurry, & Sack. The sum of these values will be known as Raw Pass Rush. The value for each is as follows:
- QB Knockdown = 1 point
- Hurry = 2 points
- Sack = 5 points
Here is the thinking behind those assigned values. QB knockdowns are not an indication of a hurry, simply that the QB was knocked down during the play. The QB could have had 10 seconds to throw, was never hurried, but still got knocked down. IF, the knockdown happened to occur exactly when the QB was releasing the football, it may have a dramatic effect on the result. Otherwise, the QB Knockdown didnt force the QB to hurry a throw, nor did it result in a loss of yardage and down like a sack.
Hurries are the next stage of pressure. A hurry indicates the QB was forced to alter the initial plan or at least speed it up significantly. This may include a hot route, a dump off to a RB, or threow away. But in this case, the defensive line did have an effect on the Quarterback decision making and timing, thus the value of 2 points.
Sacks are obviously what every defense wants. It is loss of yardage and a down. It includes a knockdown. Clearly this is the most valuable form of pressure so it is assigned 5 points.
Philadelphia Eagles Raw Pass Rush = 30*(1) + 35*(2) + 25*(5) = 30 + 70 + 125 = 225
Now we need to adjust for blitzing to create Adjusted Pass Rush. The assumption here is that all teams would prefer to get pressure without having to blitz. It is ok to blitz, but the blitzing must result in increased pressure as blitzing by its very nature weakens pass coverage. Teams that have to send the blitz in order to get any pressure are going to penalized the most.
This is going to be the most debatable scoring metric because I don’t really have a great understanding of the success expectation each team uses when deciding whether it is worth the risk to blitz. If most times a team blitzed it failed to get pressure, then unless the team has tremendous players at CB and S, they are going to get chewed up over time for sending extra rushers who do not get home.
So here is what I decided to use. For every 10 times a team blitzes, I expect them to get 1 knockdown, 1 hurry, and 1 sack. By the scoring system I used above that means a total of 8 points every 10 blitzes. Thus to create Adjusted Pass Rush, we will subtract 0.8 points from Raw Pass Rush for every blitz the team sent.
Philadelphia Eagles Adjusted Pass Rush = 225(Raw Pass Rush) - (0.8*87) = 225 - 69.6 = 155.4
The final step in the Defensive Line Ratings is to give credit to defensives lines that generate pressure AND are good against the run. To do this we are just going to divide the Adjusted Pass Rush by Avg Rush/Attempt.
Philadelphia Eagles Defensive Line Score = 155.4 / 3.8 = 40.89
What we find is that good defensive lines get pressure without blitzing. Almost every team with a poor defensive line rating is having to use a high % of blitzing to make up for the line’s deficiencies.
NFL 2023 Defensive Line Rating vs % of pressure via blitz
As a bit of a checksum, I ran the NFl 2022 stats and metrics through the formula and the 2022 defensive line rankings are shown below. Have a look through, fire up your comments, criticisms and suggestions, and enjoy a full day of Sunday football.
Best of luck to your team today!
