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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/polishonions on 2023-10-31 22:22:31.
Original Title: Butterfly Effect happening before our eyes: the invalid fair catch call against Cooper DeJean led to the Brian Ferentz announcement yesterday, and will likely result in Kirk retiring at the end of the year.
Kirk retirement speculation based off this answer in his press conference:
If DeJean’s punt return TD is upheld, Iowa beats Minnesota 17-12 and heads into the bye week at 7-1 with back to back trophy wins. They stay ranked and have a chokehold on the B1G West Division before the calendar turns to November. The 12 yards of offense in the second half is reduced to a footnote, and Brian/Kirk smirk and chuckle their way out of the bye week press conference. I bet Brian still does get canned at the end of the year, but it’s done on the Ferentzi’s terms. Maybe he is even able to stay at Iowa as a positional coach.
What a difference one call makes.
Edit: Should have explained the Kirk/Brian aspect a bit better.
First, there’s simply no way Goetz makes this announcement if Iowa wins. As horrendous as the offense is, winning still trumps everything, and I don’t see her making that call in the bye week. Kirk/Brian can point to the record, cry injuries, and love to fight another day. the fact that no team in the West is above 25 ppg also helps their cause. But it gives them time to adopt Kirk’s favorite stance: evaluate.
Kirk’s signature method of deflection is to “evaluate at the end of the year.” Offensive line is struggling? “They’ve been growing as a unit, and we’ll evaluate the position group at the end of the year.” Quarterback controversy? “We’ll let the starter play it out and evaluate their performance at the end of the year.” There’s a lawsuit about racial discrimination? “We’ll evaluate after the findings of the commission come out.” An OC not performing well, like Brian last year and in 2021? “We’ll evaluate at the end of the year.”
Kirk claims evaluation, kicks the can down the road, waits for the hot topics to die down until after bowl season, and then either a) makes whatever change he wants, and/or b) does nothing about it and moves on. It’s part of how he exerts complete control over the program with little to no pushback. Kirk is a control freak, and until recent years it has been obvious how everyone in the administration walked on eggshells around him.
Instead, Goetz took away his perceived authority and control over the situation by announcing Brian now. It was obvious he was pissed off about it in the press conference, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kirk takes his ball and goes home at the end of the year.
In summary: Brian was never going to enter 2024 as Iowa OC, that is obvious. However, if Kirk had his way then the announcement wouldn’t have been made until mid-January or February, when most viable options for coordinators are gone. At that point, it becomes a lot easier for him to pick a trusted friend/assistant to be the new OC, and lobby Brian to either stay as a positional coach, or help him line up in a positional job elsewhere.