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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/why_doineedausername on 2023-10-22 19:11:08.

Today, I am presenting my first attempt at creating a computer model for Sicko CFB. I have attached an imgur link below to the image of this week’s poll results.

Some of you may be familiar with Sicko CFB. For more information on what this is all about, you can visit their website here:

The model considers 5 things (listed in order from most important to least important).

  1. Excitement index of that team’s games (more exciting is ranked higher)

  2. Percentage of points scored via offensive TD’s (lower % is ranked higher)

  3. Inconsistency (more inconsistent teams are ranked higher)

  4. Preseason expectations (low expectation teams are ranked higher)

  5. How surprising a team’s season has been (both good and bad, more surprising ranks higher)

Sicko football is about the love of the game and an appreciation for something deeper than wins and losses.

Although the calculations themselves probably won’t change much, the way in which each of the 5 factors are weighted is relatively arbitrary. I picked values that felt right and produced sensible results. When the first in-season Sicko poll comes out (hopefully soon), I will use that to adjust the factors to reflect better how the community evaluates Sicko-worthy teams. If you have feedback, I would greatly appreciate it!

Rank Team SICKO+
1 Akron 2.156
2 Louisiana Monroe 1.000
3 Northern Illinois 0.970
4 Troy 0.923
5 Iowa 0.855
6 Iowa State 0.854
7 Cincinnati 0.775
8 East Carolina 0.715
9 Marshall 0.710
10 Eastern Michigan 0.669
11 UNLV 0.666
12 San Diego State 0.663
13 Ohio 0.629
14 Virginia Tech 0.624
15 Florida Atlantic 0.618
16 Oklahoma State 0.617
17 TCU 0.612
18 Arizona State 0.590
19 North Carolina 0.579
20 Florida International 0.560
21 Wyoming 0.556
22 South Florida 0.555
23 Baylor 0.546
24 Miami 0.543
25 Hawai’i 0.540

Some notes on this week’s ranking. Akron is currently dominating the field. In my scaled “SICKO+” metric, Akron was so far in first that I had to scale it to the 2nd best team to make the rest of the numbers more meaningful. Akron ranks in the top 6 in all categories except excitement index, and in that category, they rank 13th.

Akron’s only win this year came against Morgan State in a game that, with less than 2 minutes to go, Morgan State had a >99% win probability.

Akron also lost a 4OT thriller at Indiana and then proceeded to take a 41-point beat down at the hands of Northern Illinois (the #3 ranked team here).

This week, Baylor finally snatched the national lead in the lowest % of production from Off TD’s away from Iowa.

The other category leaders include Temple with the most surprising season, Northwestern with the most inconsistent season, and Central Michigan with the most exciting season.

The “vanilla three” this week are:

  1. Oregon

  2. UAB

  3. UCF

These are the kinds of teams that you pretty much know what to expect every time you turn them on. You probably won’t be shocked by their performances.