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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/hallach_halil on 2026-02-02 10:51:39+00:00.
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We’ve arrived at the final game of the season, as the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are set to face off and determine the 2025/26 NFL champions. Although the cast of characters looks completely different, this is a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX eleven years ago, when Pete Carroll’s group infamously decided to not hand the ball to Marshawn Lynch at the goal-line, but instead opened the door for – at the time – little-known Malcolm Butler to become the unlikely hero, as he intercepted the pass on a designed pick-play, and stopped the potential go-ahead touchdown drive. That also put an end to what might’ve become a Seahawks dynasty, while simultaneously starting the second run of three Lombardi Trophies over a five-year period in New England’s franchise history. They will now try to break a tie with the Steelers for the most hardware collected in league history, compared to the Hawks trying to put their names into the history books for the second time.
As it pertains to main figures in this rematch, we have first- and second-year coaches in Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald respectively, who both led their teams to 14-3 records, with the former trying to become the only man in NFL history to win Super Bowls as both a player and a coach for the same franchise. At quarterback, this matchup features two former third overall picks, who had quite different starts to their career. Drake Maye was an MVP frontrunner in just his second season as a pro, and would be the youngest guy at the position to win a ring, only turning 24 years old about a month before next season starts. Sam Darnold, on the other hand, was an outcast heading into 2024/25 for the Vikings, and might’ve lost out the starting battle to then-rookie J.J. McCarthy, had he not gotten hurt in preseason. Now on his fifth team in eight years, he just became the only QB not named Tom Brady to win 14+ games in back-to-back years with different franchises.
For the Patriots, while Vrabel did inject new life in his return to the franchise, he also brought back long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to help guide Maye during his development. Projected with an Over/Under of 8.5 wins, thanks to being more calculated with signing largely mid- to lower-tier free agents to a roster still in transition, there were *some* expectations for growth after just picking fourth overall in the draft, but they vastly exceeded those behind one of the most vertically-oriented passing attacks. And yet, it was their defense stepping up during this playoff run against the Chargers, Texans and Broncos – who all strived for lower-scoring affairs – and their excellent game-planning as well as situational awareness as a coaching staff, that has helped carry them here. The Seahawks, meanwhile, could rely one of the truly elite defenses on their part throughout the year, which already helped them win ten games the previous season, but had their own questions about what the offense would look like, after making huge changes when they swapped out Geno Smith for Darnold at QB, moved on from a pair of veteran receivers and put new OC Klint Kubiak in charge the operation. That decision went about as well as anyone could’ve hoped for, and along with some sparks from their special teams, they’ve looked like the most complete team in football. They destroyed the 49ers in week 18 and the Divisional Round, before deciding the season series with their other division rival Rams in their favor.
I want to dive into both sides of the ball, what the strengths and weaknesses look like, and how they match up against one another. Then I’ll bring up a couple of X-factors for either team, before closing out by predicting the final score and Super Bowl MVP. Let’s get it started!
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Patriots offense:
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On the surface:
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The biggest difference for the Patriots offense compared to last season, outside of the development of quarterback Drake Maye, has been how they re-constructed their offensive line. Michael Onwenu at right guard was the only returning starter, having brought in free agents Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses to flank him either way, while putting fourth overall pick Will Campbell and third-rounder Jared Wilson over on the left side. Those two rookies held their own for the better part of the year, but have really struggled during these playoffs. The one other first-year player of note has been running back TreVeyon Henderson, who delivered some explosive runs from mid-to-late season, but barely saw the field in January. As far as the receiving corp goes, Mack Hollins has been a quality addition with what he provides as a run-blocker, who they can put close to the formation, along with a few vertical shots, but Stefon Diggs becoming this team’s reliable zone beater underneath, coming off a torn ACL in Houston last year, has provided them a level of stability they were previously lacking in the dropback game.
Josh McDaniels’ return as New England’s OC has been critical in getting the most of these pieces, where they’ve returned to this Erhardt-Perkins, “pro style” attack that can tap into heavy personnel groupings and either run downhill man-/gap-schemes or take shots off play-actions from those, but also spread opponents out in empty and let their young signal-caller work attack that space he’s provided. Maye, of course, has been the driving force for their drastic improvement overall as an offense, as his cerebral nature, paired with pin-point throws down the field and capability as a scrambler, allows them to operate in this fashion. The Pats led the NFL in overall expected points added per play (0.155) and even with a larger gap on dropbacks (0.308). The run game, on early downs in particular, was a significant point of concern over the first half of the season, and they still finished 28th league-wide in terms of success rate (38.0%). However, they did have their best stretch on the ground over the final month of the regular season, before the numbers dropped off again in these playoffs, which came against three top-ten defenses by most metrics, largely trying to preserve the lead against run-first-oriented approaches.
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Run game:
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Looking at how Josh McDaniels has wanted to run the football, it’s been a throwback of sorts, where regularly they’re in the I-formation and rely on a lot of gap concepts, such as “duo”, “iso” (with a determined lead-blocker), (lead) inside zone, different power variations and occasional weak-side toss plays. New England already used a fullback at a pretty high rate for today’s standards, being in 21 or 22 personnel (two backs and or two tight-ends) on 21.7% of their offensive plays during the regular season. However, during these playoffs, they’ve leaned even more into going “heavy” and their frequency of having a sixth lineman on the field has risen from around eight to 14% compared to the regular slate of games, while 22 personnel has been their second-most used personnel grouping across those three contests (16.5%, compared to 7% in the regular season). Now, that’s certainly affected by how much they were focused on just running out the clock, when the second half of the AFC title game in Denver turned into a snowstorm. Nonetheless, it indicates what they want their identity to be, with a sledgehammer in Rhamondre Stevenson. After second-round pick TreVeyon Henderson took on RB1 duties in the veteran’s absence and had secured a more extensive role even once the former returned, following a slow start to the year, the Pats have returned to leaning on Rhamondre down the stretch. Over their last seven games, only twice did he not register over 60% of offensive snaps – when he had already done plenty of damage in a pair of blowout wins. In fact, TreVeyon was only on the field for four of 64 offensive snaps in that AFC title game.
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Stevenson has taken on the lion’s share of the carries because he understands how to bleed out runs conceptually and consistently finishes strong, which has a cumulative effect on defenses once the fourth quarter rolls around. Although he doesn’t feature great dynamism, he’s one of the best at his best position when it comes to setting up his blockers, keeping his pads square, and incorporating subtle movements to manipulate second-level defenders. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with 50+ rushing attempts, he ranked fourth in average yards after contact (3.83) during the regular season. That number has gone down during the playoffs, but I’d argue that’s been more so a result of facing such a tough slate of run defenses and not being able to build up momentum against stacked boxes late in games. Having said that, there’s certainly still value in utilizing Henderson’s explosiveness, capturing the edge on those toss plays or how that angle-burning speed has flashed on his four touchdown rushes of 50+ yards, if a lane does open up going downhill.
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New England did pop a few big runs off “counter” plays as change-ups this season, but there’s not a lot of misdirection in…
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