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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Brickleberried on 2023-10-16 15:17:16.

Just as everybody thought…

Current standings within the conference:

  • Iowa: 3-1
  • Wisconsin: 2-1
  • Northwestern: 1-2
  • Minnesota: 1-2
  • Nebraska: 1-2
  • Purdue: 1-3
  • Illinois: 1-3

The proof:

  • IOWA: If Iowa wins out, it owns the head-to-head (H2H) tiebreaker against Wisconsin if they also win out. All other teams have 2+ losses.
  • Wisconsin: If Wisconsin and Iowa both win out, Iowa owns the H2H tiebreaker. All other teams have 2+ losses.
  • NORTHWESTERN: If Northwestern wins out, it will have 2 losses. They have already beaten Minnesota, and winning out would mean beating Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. Nebraska would be knocked out with 3 losses. Under different scenarios, any of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota could have just 2 losses, but Northwestern would own the H2H tiebreaker against all potential 2-loss teams. (Scenario 1: If Northwestern and Minnesota both win out, then Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska all end with 3+ losses. Northwestern and Minnesota both would have 2 losses, and Northwestern owns the H2H. Scenario 2: If Northwestern and either or both of Iowa/Wisconsin win out (other than losing to Northwestern), then Northwestern and Iowa and/or Wisconsin would all have 2 losses, and Minnesota and Nebraska would have 3+ losses. Northwestern would own the H2H tiebreaker on either or both of Iowa/Wisconsin.)
  • Nebraska: Minnesota already beat Nebraska, so if both Nebraska and Minnesota win out, Iowa and Wisconsin get 3+ losses, and Nebraska would give Northwestern its third loss. Nebraska and Minnesota would be the only 2-loss teams, and Minnesota would win the H2H.
  • Purdue: Already has 3 losses and already lost to Iowa, so Iowa winning out eliminates Purdue.
  • Illinois: Already has 3 losses, so beating Iowa and Iowa winning out would still leave Iowa with only 2 losses. This still eliminates Illinois.

I haven’t done the math, but I’m pretty sure none of the Big 10 West teams have been eliminated, but only two control their own destiny: Iowa and Northwestern.

Also, Iowa is 133rd out of 133 teams in the FBS in both Offensive Yards Per Game and Offensive First Downs. Our averages for both went DOWN from last week.