This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/w0bniaR on 2023-10-15 19:26:57.

We’re halfway through the season and with the number of amazing choke jobs this weekend I decided to look and see who choked the hardest. All of this is based off the ESPN prediction model at the point where the loser had the highest chance of winning, with these being the games >99%

Miami vs. Georgia Tech 99.9% (2:04 4th)

  • Miami had won the game and only needed to kneel the ball until Mario Cristobal’s unthinkable decision to run it, resulting in a fumble. Still with the game in their control, Miami somehow allows GT to march down the field, scoring a touchdown as time expires in one of the worst losses you’ll ever see in CFB.

Boise St. @ Colorado St. 99.9% (4:07 4th)

  • Boise State had a 99.9% chance of winning with 4:07 remaing in the 4th. They proceeded to give up a touchdown pass, an onside kick into another touchdown, then ANOTHER ONSIDE KICK only to get bailed out by a questionable penalty. With the ability to ice the game Boise State went 3 and out and punted the ball back. CSU proceeded to get a 44 yard catch, then a hail mary and extra point to win the game.

UCF vs. Baylor 99.9% (:37 3rd)

  • With :37 remaining in the 3rd quarter, UCF was absolutely dominant, and had a 99.9% chance of winning. They then threw an interception allowing Baylor to march down the field and score a touchdown. Baylor then completely stalled the UCF offense, scoring another touch down, picking up a fumble and taking it to the house and kicking a field goal to take the lead. With one final chance of winning the game, UCF got in a position to kick a field goal but missed the 59 yard kick.

Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville St. 99.8% (1:15 4th)

  • Winless Sam Houston had a 99.8% chance of winning with 1:15 left in the 4th. Jacksonville State then completed a 75 yard drive in only 58 seconds (including a 28yd touchdown pass on 3rd down with 13 seconds remaining), tying the game on a 2 point conversion and ultimately winning in overtime.

Colorado vs. Stanford 99.8% (13:29 3rd)

  • CU was in complete control at half, up 29-0 having a 99.8% chance to win wuth 13:29 remaining in the third. From the point the CU offense completely collapsed, going no where in 4 straight drives while the defense gave up touchdowns on 5 straight drives. The game would end up in 2OT and Stanford wins the game on a FG after a Sanders interception in the end zone.

Colorado St. @ Colorado 99.4% (2:06 4th)

  • Colorado State had a 99.4% chance of winning with 2:06 remaining in the 4th after shocking the home crowd with a fantastic start to the game. Starting from their own 2 yard line, Sanders then led a 98 drive in only 1:30 to tie up the game. CSU was unable to get into field goal range at the end of the game, then ultimately lost in 2OT.

Honorable mention for Houston over West Virginia, who also won on a hail mary but something seems messed up in the ESPN win probability, maxing out at only 87.5%