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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/FloralAlyssa on 2025-12-24 16:54:32+00:00.
I keep seeing this like the Patriots schedule is ‘historically weak’ without the data to explain how weak it is, so I was curious and like a good actuary I went and got the data from Stathead (these are their trigrams, not mine!) and put something together.
Looking at just the Super Bowl era, the Patriots schedule would be the 9th weakest as of right now (not counting the two unplayed games) and Denver would actually be 18th:
| Rank | Season | Team | Win Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1975 | MIN | 0.3316 |
| 2 | 1999 | STL | 0.3633 |
| 3 | 1972 | MIA | 0.3673 |
| 4 | 1970 | BAL | 0.3699 |
| 5 | 1970 | MIA | 0.3699 |
| 6 | 1979 | TAM | 0.3789 |
| 7 | 1975 | RAM | 0.3827 |
| 8 | 1999 | JAX | 0.3906 |
| 2025 | NWE | 0.3911 | |
| 9 | 1998 | ARI | 0.3945 |
| 10 | 1973 | WAS | 0.3980 |
| 11 | 1970 | CIN | 0.4005 |
| 12 | 1986 | CHI | 0.4023 |
| 13 | 2000 | DEN | 0.4023 |
| 14 | 1971 | MIA | 0.4082 |
| 15 | 1991 | BUF | 0.4102 |
| 16 | 1968 | DAL | 0.4133 |
| 2025 | DEN | 0.4133 | |
| 17 | 1982 | CIN | 0.4136 |
| 18 | 1998 | ATL | 0.4141 |
| 19 | 2007 | SEA | 0.4141 |
| 20 | 2010 | KAN | 0.4141 |
| 21 | 1970 | PIT | 0.4158 |
| 22 | 1971 | DAL | 0.4158 |
| 23 | 2022 | SFO | 0.4170 |
| 24 | 1984 | SFO | 0.4180 |
| 25 | 1999 | CAR | 0.4180 |
There are teams on this list that had significant playoff success, so I don’t think the weak schedule necessarily means that they aren’t playoff ready, but it’s interesting to see, and given that their last 2 games are against the Jets and Dolphins, they could move up this list by the end of the year.
On the other end of the scale, only the Cardinals are currently breaking into the 25 hardest schedules of the Super Bowl era:
| Rank | Season | Team | Win Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1982 | BAL | 0.6481 |
| 2 | 1975 | CLE | 0.6480 |
| 3 | 1973 | SFO | 0.6224 |
| 4 | 1977 | KAN | 0.6071 |
| 5 | 1976 | NYG | 0.6071 |
| 6 | 1970 | NOR | 0.6071 |
| 7 | 1972 | HOU | 0.6046 |
| 8 | 1991 | PHO | 0.6016 |
| 9 | 1972 | BUF | 0.5995 |
| 10 | 1970 | GNB | 0.5995 |
| 11 | 1968 | ATL | 0.5995 |
| 12 | 1973 | SDG | 0.5969 |
| 13 | 1970 | WAS | 0.5969 |
| 14 | 2020 | NYJ | 0.5938 |
| 15 | 1990 | NWE | 0.5938 |
| 16 | 1975 | PHI | 0.5918 |
| 17 | 2011 | STL | 0.5898 |
| 18 | 2004 | CLE | 0.5898 |
| 19 | 1979 | CIN | 0.5898 |
| 20 | 1972 | SDG | 0.5867 |
| 21 | 1971 | NOR | 0.5867 |
| 22 | 1999 | NYJ | 0.5859 |
| 23 | 1967 | ATL | 0.5842 |
| 24 | 1989 | DAL | 0.5840 |
| 2025 | ARI | 0.5822 | |
| 25 | 2010 | CIN | 0.5820 |