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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/CFBReform on 2025-12-23 01:32:38+00:00.

Original Title: How did the 2025 5 and 4 Star recruits perform as true Freshman (OFFENSE) - Will the NIL Bubble Burst for incoming Freshmen? A look into their performance and if donors will continue to pay top dollar.

Like many of you, I’ve been interested in NIL/Donor era of CFB and how it will shape the future. I made a post the other day that G5 teams should try to make an earnest effort pursue 4 and 5 star recruits as a sort of prep, then assist those players to transfer up. Let’s just say there wasn’t a whole lot of positive feedback.

The main argument against this is because G5 programs can’t afford it (correct). My argument is that donors will want to stop paying freshmen when they can get a transfer (TBD).

Before the comments saying I don’t know what I’m talking about when it comes to recruiting. I was recruited as a player and as a coach have sent dozens of players to FBS/FCS programs. Which I’m sure many of you also won’t believe.

Either way, it made me want to look at if paying highly rated players as Freshman is a good investment. I used last year’s 247 rankings as the guideline.

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QBs

There were 4 5-Star QB’s and 18 4-Star QB’s. 3 True Freshmen started for the full season or almost the full season. On average, the QB’s had the following stats:

Games with Stats (GWS) - 3.64 (Make sense since the redshirt max number of games 4)

Completions - 43.95

Attempts - 73

Yards - 495.9

Touchdowns - 2.95

Interceptions - 1.36

77.3% are eligible to redshirt or recorded 4 or fewer games with stats.

63.6% recorded 0-2 games with stats.

1 QB is already in the portal (AJ Hill - Memphis)

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RBs

24 4-star players, 0 5-star. 25% of RBs played in every game. 20.83% played in none. On average, the RB’s have the following stats:

GWS - 5.42

Carries - 40.33

Yards - 228.1

Touchdowns - 1.75

58.3% are eligible to redshirt or recorded 4 or fewer games with stats.

2 RBs are in the portal (Marquise Henderson - Clemson, Marquise Davis - Missouri)

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WRs

4 5-stars, 47 4-stars. 29.4% recorded stats in 5 or more games. 25.5% didn’t record a stat. On average, the WR’s have the following stats:

GWS - 3.1

Catches - 7.1

Yards - 92.8

Touchdowns - 0.47

70.6% are eligible to RS or recorded 4 or fewer games with stats.

2 are in the portal (Brian Rowe Jr. - South Carolina, Ferzell Shepherd - Mississippi State)

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TEs

1 5-Star, 19 4-Stars. 10%(!!!) recorded stats in 5 or more games. 50% didn’t record a stat. TE Average stats:

GWS - 1.6

Catches - 2.4

Yards - 26.25

Touchdowns - 0.1 (2 players scored 1 touchdown each)

1 is in the portal (Harris Davidson III - Auburn)

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OT

8 5-Stars, 29 4-Stars. 14% played in 5 or more games. 27% played in 0 games. I didn’t really look at OT stats, only games played. On average, they played in 3.38 games.

1 is in the portal (Carde Smith - Colorado)

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IOL

1 5-Star, 26 4-Stars. 26% played in 5 or more games. 37% played in 0 games. On average, they played in 3.11 games.

3 in the portal (Carius Curne - LSU, Mario Nash Jr - FSU, Henry Fenuku - Missouri)

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Who plays their 5 and 4-Star Freshmen? EDIT: Freshman that played or had stats in 5 or more games. Teams with 3 or more 4/5 Star recruits.

Oregon 4 of 10
Alabama 3 of 7
Miami 3 of 6
Oklahoma 3 of 3
Georgia 3 of 11
Missouri 2 of 8
LSU 2 of 7
Tennessee 2 of 6
Michigan 2 of 5
South Carolina 2 of 5
Clemson 2 of 4
Ole Miss 2 of 4
Georgia Tech 2 of 3
Washington 2 of 3
Ohio State 1 of 8
Texas 1 of 7
USC 1 of 5
Florida 1 of 4
SMU 1 of 4
NC State 1 of 3
TCU 1 of 3
Texas A&M 0 of 8
Notre Dame 0 of 6
Auburn 0 of 4
Colorado 0 of 4
Penn State 0 of 4
UNC 0 of 3

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Ranking positions based on ROI for playing as True Freshman

  1. RB
  2. QB
  3. OT
  4. IOL
  5. WR
  6. TE

The question is will school’s continue budgeting a large amount of money for True Freshmen to MAYBE produce a little bit or a kid that doesn’t play then transfers? Or is the market going to collapse for highly ranked high school prospects? Are they going to entertain going to G5 schools to play right away?

Hope you all enjoy looking at numbers and am interested in reading the discussion.