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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/SoKrat3s on 2025-12-13 17:27:10+00:00.

Original Title: The Atlanta Falcons, who gave up their 2026 1st round pick, are 5-9 while going 2-5 in one-score games. All 5 losses where they had either a late lead or chance to tie. The difference between 5-9 and 10-4 is the difference between pick #10 and #27 (ignoring playoff results).

The Falcons are 5-9 on the season.

In seven one-score games they have gone 2-5.

One-Score Games:

  • Wk1 - Lost to Tampa Bay 23-20
  • Wk4 - beat Washington 34-27
  • Wk9 - lost to New England 24-23
  • Wk10 - lost to Indianapolis 31-25
  • Wk11 - lost to Carolina 30-27
  • Wk13 - lost to New York Jets 27-24
  • Wk15 - beat Tampa Bay 29-28

Blown Opportunities:

In those 5 losses, Atlanta held leads in four of them & had an opportunity to tie the fifth.

  • Wk1 vs TB: M.Penix scores a TD to go ahead 20-17 with 2:17 remaining. However, Tampa Bay scores a TD (missed XP) on the next possession. The Falcons even get back in position for a game-tying FG to send it to overtime, but Koo misses it.
  • Wk9 at NE: After being down 17-24, the Falcons score what should be a game-tying TD with 4:14 remaining. But Romo misses the XP and the Patriots maintain the lead, eventually winning 24-23.
  • Wk10 vs IND: The Colts have a 22-17 lead in the 4th until the Falcons drive down the field and Allgeier gets in the endzone. With the two-point conversion the Falcons take a 25-22 lead. But with just 1:44 left the Colts are able to get a field goal and send it to OT, where they win.
  • Wk11 vs CAR: The Falcons kick a FG to go up 24-19 with 2:43 remaining. But the Panthers come back to score the go-ahead TD. Atlanta would come back to tie it, but then lost in OT.
  • Wk13 at NYJ: A Cousin-Sills TD gives Atlanta a lead with 8:46 left. But the Jets would come back to score both a TD & FG to win.

Draft Position:

They gave up their 2026 first round pick to the Rams for pick #26 in 2025.

That pick currently sits at #10 in the draft order.

Speaking hypothetically… If those close one-score games swung differently and the Falcons had a bit more luck fall their way…

  • They could be as high as 10-4, holding the division lead, the NFC’s #3 seed, and the draft pick would sit at #27 (ignoring playoff results).
  • Winning all five games is a stretch, obviously. But if they just go 3-2 in those games they are 8-6 and in 1st place in the South, with the 20th pick (ignoring playoff results).
  • Even if they just hold on for two of them, going 2-3, they are 7-7 and in the thick of the race for the NFC-South. (Making the playoffs means your pick is between #19-#32)

While the player they got (James Pearce Jr.) leads all rookies in pressures is clearly a hit, the trade itself has been widely panned.

Does that trade look as bad if they have a little more luck in one-score games and in contention for the NFC South?