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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/Emracruel on 2025-12-12 20:26:57+00:00.

There has been a lot of discussion about the falcons going for 2 last night, with one side arguing momentum, and the other arguing making 2 point conversions 50% of the time means you should go for it.

The math is much more complicated than the simple case of 50% chance to make 2 point conversion and 100% to make extra point attempts.

The following math all assumes that (1) the opposing team fails to score and (2) one team will always win - ties are very rare and given the new rules this year it is impossible to put a reasonable estimate of ties. They definitely are not 0% of the time, but discounting these ties can only help the argument for taking the extra point attempts (PAT). The following math will show why you must be abysmal at 2 point attempts to not go for 2.

Generally speaking the league average on PAT conversion rate (without penalty yardage) is about 98%. Generally speaking the 2 point conversion rate is about 45%. These numbers change from year to year, but these are about as accurate as you can be in an ever-shifting game.

To find the math of how often a choice wins we have to consider both possible outcomes and multiply by the probability of each, and sum how often you win given each option.

After you score a touchdown down 14 the traditional extra point attempts option will be successful 98% of the time, and 98% of that the second extra point attempts will also be good. This takes the game to overtime where you win 50% of the time. So you win via that route 0.98x0.98x0.50x100% = 48.02% of the time. But that’s not the only route to victory. If you miss the first extra point (2% of the time) you know that you need to go for 2 the second time, which you make 45% of the time to go to overtime where you win 50% of the time - in total that is 0.02x0.45x0.50x100% = 0.45%

So going for the extra point results in winning 48.47% of the time that you score twice and your opponent doesn’t score (48.02% + 0.45%).

If you go for 2 points after the first touchdown you will succeed 45% of the time, which means when you score the second touchdown you can just kick the extra point and win 98% of the time. This adds 0.45x0.98x100% = 44.1% to your win percentage. The 2% of the time you miss the extra point you still go to overtime where you win 50% of the time. This adds 0.45x0.02x0.50x100% = 0.45% to your winrate. But if you fail the first 2 point conversion attempt, when you score again you can go for 2 again. If you succeed in that second attempt you go to overtime where you win 50% of the time. This adds 0.55x0.45x0.50x100% = 12.38% to your winrate.

So going for 2 results in you winning 56.93% of the time that you score twice and your opponent doesn’t score (44.1% + 0.45% + 12.38%).

This means that if your team is average at converting 2 point attempts, going for 2 gives you an extra 8.5% winrate (if you make the necessary touchdowns and prevent opposing scoring).

But WAIT you say “my team sucks at 2 point conversions, our offense is terrible.” I will save you the depths of the math of how we get there, but the first whole-digit percent-to-convert on 2 point conversions that you should kick the PAT is 37%.

At 37% 2 point rate:

Going for the PAT wins (0.98x0.98x0.50 + 0.02x0.37x0.50)x100% = 48.39% of the time.

Going for 2 wins (0.37x0.98 + 0.37x0.02x0.50 + 0.63x0.37x0.50) = 48.285% of the time.

Your team converts 2 yards more than 37% of the time, I promise.