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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/Rogueofoz on 2025-12-12 17:33:32+00:00.
Since some of you are sometimes confused why head coaches go for 2 point attempts when losing by 14 and you score a touchdown, I figure I do a brief explanation of why it makes sense and teams ON AVERAGE should almost always go for it on this situation.
Mathematically makes sense:
2 pt conversions have a 50% chance of making it.
If you are losing by 14, it gives you a better win% converting a 2pt attempt than kicking thr extra point (which has a 96% sucess rate).
If you don’t make it, you can go for it on the next score to tie.
Since there is a 50% sucess rate on 2pt attempts, ON AVERAGE you should convert 1 of every 2 attempts, math says one of those will be successful, MATHEMATICALLY speaking you are pretty much guaranteed to at least tie the game with a pretty good chance of winning it if you convert the 1st, 2 point try.
As oppose to kicking the extra point on both scores which has a much lower win%.