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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/History-Speaks on 2025-12-08 20:29:08+00:00.

In attempting the field goal down 10 with five seconds remaining, the Raiders were attempting to win the game or force OT with an FG, onside kick recovery, and a TD. This was possible, as I will show below, although of course improbable. (Maybe a 1 out of 50,000 chance or even lower.)

As we know, the FG took all five seconds off the clock, ending the game (oddly) on a made FG. If you noticed, however, Carlson was visibly frustrated after making the FG, as if he had screwed something up. He was surely aiming to hit it faster than he did. (On made field goals, the play clock runs from the snap to when it clears the uprights.) Had Carlson made the FG with 1 second remaining, the chance would’ve remained to recover an onside kick and get the offense back for one play.

If even one second remained after the FG, there would be a chance to recover the onside kick and get back on offense. For onside kicks can be recovered with zero time running off the clock.

On kickoffs, the clock doesn’t run until the ball is touched by the receiving team. So an onside kick that is successfully recovered without ever having touched a member of the receiving team, a very common type of recovery by the way, runs no time off the clock. (Conversely, with an onside kick that is successfully recovered after bouncing off a member of the receiving team, which is also common, the clock runs.)

So let’s break down exactly how the Raiders could’ve won here, with the chances of success - my estimates - in parentheses.

  • Carlson made FG in under five seconds (1/2)
  • Onside kick recovery without touching a bronco (1/50, based on the fact that about 5% of onside kicks are recovered, and that recoveries that don’t touch the receiving team are about 50% of onside kick recoveries)
  • Touchdown on the ‘pass and do a bunch of laterals’ play (1/500, based on how often this works when teams do it at the end of games)

1/2x1/50x1/500=1/50,000.

Tl;dr: Dave Pourtnoy and the conspiracy theorists are absolute morons. Pete Carroll is a wealthy man and wasn’t thinking about the point spread. He was thinking about a miracle, 1/50,000 way for the Raiders to win the game. Which is what he should be thinking about.