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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Ornery_Gift7005 on 2025-12-03 02:05:01+00:00.

Original Title: ESPN FPI says 19 teams still have a greater than 0% chance to make the playoff. That includes Kennesaw State with a 0.3% chance. Here is a path I found where the Owls could make the playoff in their second FBS season.

All percentages used come from ESPN’s FPI Projections, which can be found here.

Keep in mind that this is napkin math that I mostly did on Sunday evening, when Kennesaw State had a 0.4% chance to make it. Please let me know of any errors you may find, as I am very interested in this outlier scenario.

This theory mostly revolves around Virginia, JMU, and UNLV losing. We would also need Boise State’s resume to be weakened through a combinations of other factors, mainly Notre Dame being excluded.

First, let’s take a look at the necessary conference championship results. I have added a “nature of win” column, which I feel would be necessary to guide us to this very specific destination.

Conference Winner Nature of Win Final Record Why?
CUSA Kennesaw State Blowout 10-3 To Qualify
B1G Indiana Blowout 13-0 Kennesaw State lost to Indiana, this would strengthen their resume.
SBC Troy Unconvincing Win 9-4 Eliminate JMU
ACC Duke Unconvincing Win 8-5 Eliminate Virginia
MWC Boise State Unconvincing Win 9-4 Boise has a weaker resume than UNLV.
B12 BYU Blowout 12-1 Possibility to eliminate Notre Dame to make room for Texas Tech, weakening Boise State’s OOC resume.
MAC Western Michigan Blowout 9-4 Weakens UNLV’s win over Miami (OH), which weakens Boise State’s MWC Championship win.
AAC Tulane Blowout 11-2 Boise State and UNT both lost to common opponent USF. A UNT loss indirectly weakens Boise State’s OOC resume.
SEC Alabama Blowout 11-2 Mostly irrelevant, but adds another reason to exclude Notre Dame for the purpose of weakening Boise State’s OOC resume.

Important Assumptions:

  • We need to assume that BYU Texas Tech gets in over Notre Dame if they win lose the Big 12 Championship, as the committee has signaled in the just-released rankings.
  • We need to assume that the committee doesn’t care that Duke has a transitive win over Kennesaw State through their common opponent of Wake Forest.

Projected Field:

Indiana (13-0)

Ohio State (12-1)

Oregon (12-1)

Texas A&M (11-1)

Ole Miss (11-1)

Oklahoma (10-2)

Alabama (11-2)

BYU (12-1)

Texas Tech (11-2)

Georgia (11-2)

Tulane (11-2)

Kennesaw State (10-3)

Excluded Conference Champions:

MAC - Western Michigan (9-4) (0.0% FPI Chance to Make Playoff)

SBC - Troy (9-4) (0.0% FPI Chance to Make Playoff)

MWC - Boise State (9-4) - (2.4% FPI Chance to Make Playoff.)

ACC - Duke (8-5) - (0.0% FPI Chance to Make Playoff)