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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Pincindleton on 2025-11-27 10:41:15+00:00.

With a potential 8-5 ACC Champion Duke still alive, two G5 conference champions may make the playoffs. Here’s what needs to happen:

Mountain West

  • New Mexico beats SDSU
  • USU beats Boise State
  • New Mexico hosts the MWCG and wins

ACC

  • Duke beats Wake Forest
  • Miami beats Pitt

2/3 of the following:

  • Cal beats SMU
  • VT beats Virginia
  • UNC beats NC State
  • Duke makes the ACCCG and wins

Sun Belt

  • Georgia State beats Old Dominion
  • Coastal Carolina beats JMU
  • Coastal Carolina beats JMU again in the SBCCG
  • JMU loses SBCCG

Conference USA

  • Jacksonville State beats WKU, knocking them out of playoff contention

In this scenario the top 4 conference champions are:

  • Big 10 Champ
  • SEC Champ
  • Big 12 Champ
  • AAC Champ

With the final auto-bid coming down to 10-3 UNM and 8-5 Duke.

If Duke manages to avoid playing Miami in the CG, the resumes will include:

New Mexico

  • Win @ UCLA
  • Win @ UNLV
  • Win vs SDSU
  • Win vs UNLV/SDSU
  • 34-17 loss @ current #15 Michigan

Duke

  • Win vs 8-4 Wake Forest
  • Win vs 9-4 ACC runner-up
  • Loss vs Illinois (comparable to UCLA, could finish lower in Big 10 standings)
  • Loss @ potential AAC champion Tulane

With more quality wins, fewer losses, the best loss, and the only road win vs an OOC P4 opponent (vs a 26 point home loss to a similarly ranked opponent), the Lobos should get the last auto-bid over an ACC champion Duke.