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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/MasonL52 on 2025-11-25 22:52:32+00:00.
Pete Carroll and John Spytek’s Year-1 Disaster Class
Ashton Jeanty will be a fantastic player for a long time, as have Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley have been. In 11 total seasons with the teams that drafted them, the two won one playoff game between them. Barkley, specifically, has served as a clear example of why to bypass the shiny and exciting slam-dunk pick at RB early in a rebuild.
These expectations were directly a result of Pete Carroll (and possibly Tom Brady). From day one, he maintained that the Raiders were going to compete, not rebuild. That confidence (or arrogance) led to drafting a RB at 6th overall, and trading a 3rd-round pick for a 34-year-old QB due to an extension.
Instead, the Raiders are no better. They sit at 2-9 going into December, on pace to finish worse than any of Josh McDaniels or Antonio Pierce’s teams. In fact, the Raiders haven’t finished with three wins or fewer since 2014 with Dennis Allen and Tony Sparano.
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Also last week I wrote on Kyler Murray’s potential landing spots this off-season, which included the Raiders. Check that out below!
It’s Easy to Say in Hindsight
The fact of the matter is that Ben Johnson turned down this job. Whatever reason he had, the Raiders were not in a position to grab one of the hot new HC candidates this cycle. Pete Carroll was universally seen as a pretty good option, capable of running a team and at least bringing them to competence.
Hiring Chip Kelly was far more bold, but still a savvy move. Having made his way through the college ranks since he was last in the NFL, he did appear to be a good option with an innovative offense and former NFL experience.
Geno Smith was certainly seen as a great move, and it was the Seahawks that appeared to be the losers by moving on from a proven commodity for a younger, but more volatile Sam Darnold. Smith washing up this quickly wasn’t expected, but seeing his declining play over the previous two seasons from his breakout campaign probably should have been a sign.
It’s impressive how badly all of their prominent signings aged, but I don’t think it was incompetence to make any such hire. That being said, every other decision…
There’s no excuse for how the Raiders built their 2025 team
The 2024 Raiders had a few major issues.
In 2024, the offensive line finished 27th in PFSN’s OL Impact (67.7 grade). They weren’t great in pass protection, but were awful at run blocking.
They returned all five starters from the end of last season. They hired Pete Carroll’s son, Brandon, as the OL coach. They passed on Armand Membou in favor of Ashton Jeanty. Through November, Membou ranks 18th of 80 tackles per PFF grade.
In fairness to them, they’ve been missing LT Kolton Miller since early in the season. That compounded issues further at one spot they’d otherwise be able to rely on, but he wasn’t fixing the overarching issue, either.
The Raiders did spend two 3rd-round picks on OL this past draft, but Caleb Rogers and Charles Grant have combined for just 1 snap this year.
Brock Bowers is the true #1 target on this team, but he could desperately use a running mate. Jakobi Meyers was the only other credible threat for them last year with 1,027 yards. He’d be traded at the deadline. Tre Tucker was the only other receiver above 500 yards. Their third most productive receiver was Davante Adams in three games. Over a season, it was DJ Turner with 158 yards.
The Raiders passed on Tetairoa McMillan, who has 783 yards and five touchdowns through 11 games of his rookie career. He, too, is the only credible receiving threat on his team.
They would draft a pair of receivers, Jack Bech in the 2nd round and Dont’e Thornton in the 4th. Without Davante Adams and with Bowers hurt for a bulk of the season, those two have combined (through 11 games) for 35 targets, 15 receptions, 204 yards, and no touchdowns. Tyler Lockett, age 33, signed at midseason, has 12 catches and 139 yards in four games played for the Raiders.
What Do They Do Now?
Carroll was to come in and turn a hapless Raiders organization into a culturally tough and competitive team. Instead, the Raiders have nothing to show for it and even fewer excuses as frustrations mount. They’ll now have to decide whether to move on from yet another coach early and bring in their 5th full-time head coach since 2021.
Firing Carroll, a known program builder, after one year with a horrible roster will not be a good look. Returning Carroll may be even riskier and yet another lost season if he doesn’t turn the team around quickly.
It’s too early to get a read on what the Raiders are thinking, so we’ll wait on the coaching and turn to the roster.
Needs:
- OL
- QB
- WR
- DT
- LB
- DB
This may look like I listed everything, but the Raiders are pretty sound at Edge, RB, and TE. So, that’s something. You don’t get to 2-9 bad without having holes throughout.
To Quarterback or Not to QB? The Raiders certainly need a QB, and they have just enough firepower on offense to give one a chance. That said, I’m a little skeptical about both: this QB class and the state of this offense.
Now, if the Raiders brass falls in love with Dante Moore or Ty Simpson and gets the chance to draft them, then they should. Otherwise, I’d take the best OL available and call Derek Carr out of retirement. A competent OC and QB will do wonders for this offense.
Trade Maxx Crosby?
It’s tough. Crosby has been adamant about staying in Vegas, so trading such a loyal, elite edge rusher is a brutal decision to make. When the Raiders traded Khalil Mack, they were unable to turn the assets into a Mack-level impact.
That said, Crosby is 28, playing great football, and you’re unlikely to compete within his window. He also remains one of the few building blocks that this team could turn into a strength. I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here. A few possible trade packages include:
- Cowboys: Two 26’ 1sts, 28’ 3rd
- Browns: ‘26 1st (Jacksonville) ‘26 2nd, ‘27 1st
- Jets: ‘26 1st (Indy), ‘26 2nd, ‘26 2st (Indy)
- Commanders: ‘26 1st (top-10), ‘27 1st
Tough to say no to such packages, even if that means replacing Crosby. If they do, it’s a great class at the position, so you can start with Miami’s Reuben Bain Jr, or Ohio State’s Arvell Reese.
The hole left by Christian Wilkins at DT remains. Another unlucky signing, but what was supposed to be a mainstay along the line has only left it empty. Clemson’s Peter Woods would be a massive get if you either build around Maxx Crosby or trade him for more picks. If replacing him outright
Utah’s Spencer Fano is trending toward OT1, so doubling up with him and an edge rusher would be an enticing draft. You could also go the Bengals route as well and take my WR1 Jordyn Tyson to make an incredible trio of skill talent, but I’d only recommend that if they hire Klint Kubiak with a scheme that can hide the OL.
The Raiders will make for a very interesting case study with whatever they decide to do this offseason. They could easily blow it up again, or aggressively pursue competition sooner than later.