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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/JPAnalyst on 2023-10-07 16:05:26.
Original Title: [OC] CHART: How has Joe Burrow performed in his first 4 games of the season compared to the rest of the season? How does Burrow’s 2023 first 4 games compare to his first three seasons’ games 1-4? (measured by ANY/A)
Joe Burrow is off to another slow start; this time it is likely cause by issues with his lower leg. The narrative has been that Burrow starts off slow all the time, so I wanted to look at the data around this assumption. Although past season he may have underperformed through a different number of games, I’m just using his first four games since that’s where we are in 2023.
I don’t think it’s a slam dunk notion that Burrow always starts off slow. Recency is playing a big role in that narrative with his stinky start last year (5.73) and his strong finish (7.14), but in the previous two years there wasn’t much difference in games 1-4 and 5+.
What’s also notable about this year is the level of badness compared to his first 4 games in previous years. This season is clearly different with an ANY/A of 3.86 (again, his injured calf has to be a factor here).
My thoughts are that this year is NOT like the others and it’s not just Burrow being early season Burrow. However, we have a 46-game sample size of his career which should weigh much heavier than his last 4 games; based on that, I’m not concerned about Burrow long-term. I just wanted to add some perspective on his start.