This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Prudent-Cheetah1656 on 2025-11-10 14:56:09+00:00.
Here is the final update until the conclusion of the regular season. With over 500 games played between FBS teams, trends have blossomed.
Reminder that service academies are not included due to talent composite’s lack of proper evaluation.
Season Overview
| Week | Overall Record of More Talented Team | In P4 Matchups | In G6 Matchups |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 36-12 | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Week 2 | 34-14 | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Week 3 | 32-13 | 9-5 | 7-5 |
| Week 4 | 28-20 | 7-10 | 8-2 |
| Week 5 | 27-21 | 14-11 | 10-9 |
| Week 6 | 29-19 | 13-11 | 13-8 |
| Week 7 | 31-21 | 16-11 | 14-10 |
| Week 8 | 29-28 | 15-15 | 13-2 |
| Week 9 | 24-28 | 15-13 | 9-15 |
| Week 10 | 30-20 | 15-13 | 15-7 |
| Week 11 | 25-23 | 14-9 | 11-13 |
| Total | 325-219 (59.74%) | 129-110 (53.97%) | 114-90 (55.88%) |
The talent win percentages are shrinking. That’s true overall as a larger percentage of games played have no been in-conference opponents, but it’s also true across P4 and G6 segments. Could it be that talent’s impact on play shrinks as the season progresses, or is it just coincidence?
Upsets
It’s always fun to see the little guy put a pelt on the wall. Here is a look at the biggest upsets of the year so far:
Top 5 upsets according to talent composite gap:
| Game | Talent Gap | Score Margin |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico over UCLA | 387.82 | -25 |
| Delaware over UConn | 325.27 | -3 |
| New Mexico over UNLV | 321.74 | -5 |
| Delaware over FIU | 319.76 | -22 |
| Indiana over Oregon | 287.89 | -10 |
Top 5 P4 upsets according to talent composite gap:
| Game | Talent Gap | Score Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana over Oregon | 287.89 | -10 |
| Indiana over Penn State | 265.08 | -3 |
| Duke over Clemson | 248.97 | -1 |
| Vanderbilt over LSU | 234.63 | -7 |
| Northwestern over Penn State | 232.45 | -1 |
The Penn State and Clemson collapses are fascinating. While only the top 5 are displayed for now, each team appeared 3 times in the top 10. No bueno.
Broken Down By Talent Gap Size
Surely the larger the talent gap, the less likely the upset. How does the favorite fare depending on talent gap category?
| Talent Gap | Record | Average Score Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 250+ | 46-10 (82.14%) | 23.46 |
| 200-250 | 28-12 (70.00%) | 14.78 |
| 150-200 | 30-15 (66.67%) | 9.24 |
| 100-150 | 52-35 (59.77%) | 4.82 |
| 50-100 | 67-58 (53.6%) | 2.95 |
| 0-50 | 99-90 (52.38%) | 0.80 |
No surprise, the larger the gap, the larger the average score margin, and the better the record. But both margins and winning percentages shrunk across the board. Another supporting piece of evidence that talent’s impact on game outcomes declines over time.
Tranches can provide a good, quick and dirty visualization, but it lacks nuance, so I made a chart. It’s a pity that I can’t put my chart in here, but if you put a scatter plot together that has talent composite gap on the x-axis and margin of victory on the y-axis for every game, you get an equation of
0.0718x + -1.86 with an R-squared of 0.133
In other words, from our limited sample, talent disparity predicts less than 15% of a game’s scoring margin, and a talent gap of 100 points is worth a little less than a touchdown, roughly.
Conclusion
I’m excited for the regular season games to wrap up. Once they do, not only will this same analysis be shared, but I will also add the variable of home/away. As an added bonus, I’ll also include each team’s relative performance vs expected based on talent disparities. Should be fun!