This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/SparkMaster360 on 2025-11-09 22:09:55+00:00.

With 3 weeks to go in the regular season, the conference championship picture in the Big Ten becomes increasingly clear.

The only assumption I’m going to make is that both participants in the B1GCG will have at most 2 conferences losses. Using this calculator the weirdest game I could get was Indiana (7-2) vs Northwestern (6-3) with the tiebreaker coming down to advanced analytics. This required Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon all losing out and every other game going a specific way so Indiana was the only 2 loss team in conference. Suffice it to say, I do not think this is going happen, but if you want to see how 3-loss B1G teams can still make it to Indianapolis go nuts.

Of the (in my opinion) plausible scenarios, here’s how things play out:

Indiana and Ohio State win out

Indiana (9-0) and Ohio State (9-0) would both earn berths. Ohio State would earn home field advantage based on strength of schedule, which heavily favors OSU.

Indiana vs Ohio State is the B1GG

Indiana and Oregon win out, Michigan beats Ohio State again and wins out

Indiana (9-0) would clinch based on best conference record

Oregon (8-1) would earn the second berth off having a better strength of schedule than Ohio State (8-1) and Michigan (8-1).

If this sounds weird to you, remember that Oregon playing Indiana greatly boosts their SoS even if they lost, and they drew Iowa and USC in addition to the Hoosiers. Michigan and OSU’s best conference opponent is each other, followed by USC (for Michigan), and Illinois (for Ohio State).

Indiana vs Oregon is the B1GG

Ohio State and Oregon win out, Indiana loses one of their remaining games

Ohio State (9-0) clinches off having the best conference record

Indiana (8-1) earns a berth based on their head-to-head victory over Oregon (8-1). It does not matter which of Indiana’s remaining games they lose, the outcome is the same.

Indiana vs Ohio State is the B1GG

Indiana wins out, USC wins out, Michigan wins out

Indiana (9-0) clinches based on having the best conference record.

USC (8-1) would clinch over Michigan (8-1) and Ohio State (8-1) based on strength of schedule.

Indiana vs USC is the B1GG

Indiana wins out, Oregon loses to Minnesota or Washington

Indiana (9-0) clinches based on having the best conference record.

The winner of THE GAME (8-1) would clinch of either having a head to head victory over Ohio State (8-1) in Michigan’s case, or by having the best conference record (9-0) in the event Ohio State wins.

Indiana vs Michigan/Ohio State is the B1GCG

Indiana loses to Wisconsin, USC wins out, Michigan wins out

USC (8-1) clinches on strength of schedule between USC/Indiana/OSU/Michigan

Michigan (8-1) clinches on strength of schedule between Michigan/OSU/Indiana, then head to head.

USC vs Michigan is the B1GCG

Indiana loses to Purdue, Oregon wins out, Michigan wins out

Oregon (8-1) clinches a berth based on strength of schedule between Oregon/Indiana/OSU/Michigan

Michigan (8-1) earns a berth over Indiana (8-1) and Ohio State (8-1) based on record against common opponents, and then head to head.

Oregon vs Michigan is the B1GCG

Oregon loses to Washington, Indiana loses to Purdue, Michigan wins out

Michigan (8-1) and Ohio State (8-1) clinch berths based on record against common opponents

Michigan vs Ohio State is the B1GCG

TO SUMMARIZE:

Indiana and Ohio State want to win out to avoid a headache, but if they drop a game, Indiana has the stronger position given their head to head win over Oregon.

USC is much closer than I realized to making it, basically needing IU or OSU to drop a game, and the Trojans to win out

Michigan could really fuck up OSU’s season again