This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/hallach_halil on 2025-10-16 10:23:25+00:00.
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Six weeks into the NFL season, you’ll hear a bunch of numbers thrown out there by different mainstream media shows but also niche podcasts, from basic yardage totals to hyper-specific metrics about efficiency by a certain unit, depending game situation, personnel grouping, and so much more.
So what I did once all games from this past slate were concluded, was to dive into a variety of outlets, play around with filters and compare statistics I found with the tape, to come up with what I believe are the ten most meaningful numbers, as I try to describe what this year has been about.
Just a quick disclaimer – these all concern teams that have earned equity to be deemed significant so far this year or at least came into the season as a franchise of note in regards to competing for the Super Bowl. So you’re not going to read about the Raiders’ atrocious run-blocking or the horrible splits for the winless Jets through the first three quarters compared to garbage time.
Let’s get into these:
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Sam Darnold – 1****st in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks (0.367)
I will fully admit that I questioned the Seahawks basically swapping out Geno Smith for Darnold (with cap relief long-term being a major factor), along with trading away their one true outside-the-numbers wide receiver in D.K. Metcalf. Even if I thought there was some positive correlation with Kenneth Walker as a wide zone runner in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s scheme and the quarterback’s throwing ability on the move off bootlegs, I thought the lack of investments in the O-line outside of first-rounder Grey Zabel and how much they boxed themselves into having to live in condensed formations, with the limited experience by their perimeter receiving options, would come back to haunt them. Yet, somehow they’ve been the most explosive aerial assault in the league at this point. They’re a full yard ahead of the team in second (Colts) in net yards per pass attempt (8.8 NY/A), which includes sacks, and no other QB has been more efficient on a per-dropback basis (based on expected points added – EPA).
The guy under center of course is the biggest factor in all of this. Never has Sam been better at pushing the ball down the field to hunt for big plays within the structure of the offense, and also avoided the potential of problems later in the play-clock at this high a level. Through six weeks, he has posted a 7.7% big-time-throw compared to just a 1.1% turnover-worthy play rate (per PFF), which are both tops among quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks. His ball-placement to defeat trailing defenders, protect his receivers over the middle of the field but also give them chance to adjust on vertical shots has been superb. Seattle’s OC staying patient enough with a run game that has been more feast or famine (29th in rushing success rate – 35.3%, but tied for first in carries of 20+ yards – six), to facilitate their aggressive play-action attack, yet also the faith he has put in the trigger-man of the operation, has been pivotal. Darnold has cashed in on two more completions of 40+ yards (six) than any other quarterback in the league, of which all but one have gone to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His ascent to the status of true superstar receiver has been equally remarkable, showcasing the growth in route-running savvy and flexibility to win from any spot on the field, along with the ball-tracking skills that have always looked special, since he first ran onto the field at Ohio State. Right now, he’s a full yard ahead of the Rams’ Puka Nacua at number two among WRs with 10+ targets in yards per route run (4.43 YRR). This brilliance through the air was necessitated to a certain level by the injuries among their cornerback room and how opposing quarterbacks were able to attack those. So as that Seattle D is fully intact again, we could see some decline in the explosive numbers they’re pushing for themselves, but I really want to see them maintain that aggressive mindset.
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Denver Broncos – 30 defensive sacks (most in NFL history through the first six weeks of a season)
It’s no surprise that the Broncos were going to field one of the premier defenses in the NFL yet again. They were top-two by pretty much any metric in 2024 and only added more pieces, as they wanted to carry over their success into matchups against elite quarterbacks, which led to vastly different results previously. After losing two of their first three games of this season – to the Colts and Chargers – they’ve started feasting on poor offensive lines and predictable play-calling, but also became the aggressors again by how they’ve operated schematically. After leading the league with 61 sacks last season, they’re basically already halfway to that total through six games, and ten(!) ahead of any other team out there up to this point. Now, I will fully admit that getting nine(!) of those last week against Justin Fields was a big help, since they were able to lock up those Jets receivers in man-coverage and swallow the quarterback holding onto the ball, as a “see-it-to-before-it-throw-it” passer. Currently, Denver is on pace for the all-time record, averaging five per game. Even if you went by the then-16-game standard, they’d beat out the 1984/85 Bears (72 vs. 80).
What’s interesting about the Broncos’ success rushing the passer is the varied approach they’ve chosen. Last season, Vance Joseph’s group finished third in overall blitz rate (36.2% – according to Next Gen Stats), which did also bring more volatility going up against cerebral QBs who could take advantage of the back-end becoming vulnerable. So far this year, they’ve only reached that mark in one of their matchups against the Colts (which also led to a season-high 29 points allowed), but they’ve actually dialed up the rate of man-coverage, and their overall pressure rate is actually up by nearly 9% (46.1% – first in the NFL). What’s more fascinating is their weekly splits, as their blitz rates has ranged anywhere between 13.8 and 68.4%. So they’ve been very thoughtful with how they’ve approached certain gameplans, and with the continued development of their guys up front, Vance has allowed those players to create favorable opportunities themselves through twists and different games up front, rather than requiring extra bodies on the rush to create one-on-ones. At the same, they’ve been more fluid with adjusting on the fly, best illustrated by how they massively swung towards zone coverage in the second half of their comeback win at Philadelphia. Looking at the results overall and situationally, they’ve allowed by far the lowest success rate as a unit (36.8%), as well as being number in third-down rate (27.2%) and red-zone TD percentage responsible for (28.6%). That’s been particularly important with Denver’s offense taking a step back, with Sean Payton putting the training wheels on Bo Nix again. I understand the idea of playing through that dominant defense, but in order to reach their ultimate ceiling and actually challenge to make it out of the AFC, they may need push those sliders to a certain degree, so their pass-rush can continue to feast.
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Indianapolis Colts – Scored on an NFL-high 61.1% of their offensive drives
Since I just mentioned them putting up a season-high 29 points against the Broncos’ vaunted defense, how stellar Indy’s offense has been so far was a lot more surprising based on pre-season expectations. Just last year, they ranked 20th in percentages of drives that led to points (36.6%), while also turning the ball over at the fourth-highest rate (14.9%). Through six weeks, they’re clearly the rest of the competition by nearly 10% in the former. That’s particularly noteworthy considering the only additions they made were Giants outcast quarterback Daniel Jones and first-round tight-end Tyler Warren – famously a position that needs time to acclimate to the pro level – while they were looking to replace two established starters on the O-line. Otherwise, this is basically the same group. I’ll openly admit that I didn’t see the value in starting “Indiana Jones” over Anthony Richardson at the center of it all, with how heavily this regime is tied to the former fourth overall pick from three years ago, since I thought we know what the veteran QB was. His ability to operate Shane Steichen’s diverse offensive system at a high level has lifted the floor massively, the front-five has come together in a meaningful way and the deployment of this skill-position group makes a lot of sense, where they may not have any superstars outside of Jonathan Taylor (yet), but everyone executes their role beautifully. That’s how they’ve also posted the highest offensive success rate (51.1%) and currently rank second in schedule-adjust DVOA offensively (23.5%).
Of course, it all starts with the ground game for the Colts. Jonathan Taylor has averaged just over 100 yards rushing per game, and he’s reached the end-zone eight times hi…
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