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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/obamaluvr on 2023-10-02 14:02:29.
College football is a game that is very much about perception. While there is strong correlation between ranking and record, teams that have had very strong seasons have found themselves left out of national championship conversation or a prestigious bowl appearance due getting the short end of the ranking stick. Before the season already begins, there is a near endless supply of lists where people (including media figures) attempt to rank what they think are the best teams in the country.
The one with the most history behind it is the AP poll, a compilation of rankings by various media members across the country. Due to the chaotic nature of college football, teams may be overrated or underrated. It is quite a spectacular sight to see a team rise or fall significantly based on the result of a single game - a sign of many voters admitting that their perceptions of a team were wrong.
That could very much be the case with Maryland if they manage to pull off the upset over OSU, who is currently sitting at #4 in the AP poll, bolstered by a victory in a top 10 matchup vs Notre Dame. I used College Poll Archive to see what the record is for the highest ranking for a previously unranked team in order to see how this year’s Maryland team stacks up.
Do note that 2020 OSU/PSU are ignored for this - they were not ranked until they began their shortened conference-only football schedule but they would’ve certainly been ranked in the preseason under normal circumstances. So this begs the question posed in the title - Can Maryland and Ohio State make history next weekend by causing the highest Initial ranking in the history of the 25-team AP poll following an upset?
To better look at how those historical teams stack up, I’ve added a table of the top 4 teams by this metric (outside 2020 OSU/PSU) and 2023 Maryland. Do note that for Maryland stats, I assume the victory and win/loss under the assumption that OSU loses, but otherwise all stats are based on the current week (where applicable)
| 2016 Wisconsin | 2014 Arizona | 2016 Texas | 2022 Florida | 2023 Maryland | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Rank at Ranking | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | TBD |
| Record at ranking | 1-0 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
| Pct max points | 49.77% | 63.40% | 48.72% | 48.44% | TBD |
| Pct max points l/w | 2.75% | 2.87% | 0.79% | 0.89% | 5.23% |
| Best opp beaten | LSU | Oregon | ND | Utah | OSU |
| Best opp rank | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Score against best opp | 16-14 | 31-24 | 50-47 (2OT) | 29-26 | TBD |
| Opp W-L | N/A | 13-13 | N/A | N/A | 11-19 |
| PF(PPG) | N/A | 39.8 | N/A | N/A | 38.6 |
| PA(PPG) | N/A | 26.6 | N/A | N/A | 13.2 |
| Average MoV | N/A | 13.2 | N/A | N/A | 25.4 |
| Smallest MoV | N/A | 3 | N/A | N/A | 18 |
Bold indicates best in a category. italics indicates worst in a category.
At a glance, Beating a top 10 team is a must. That doesn’t come as a surprise - a large upset is expected for such a large ranking change to come immediately. Another thing to notice is that close games against those top teams was acceptable. All 4 historical teams won by a single score. A final note is that for 3 of the 4 at the top, they got their rank after their opening game. It’s hard to really compare those teams, so lets do a deeper dive into how Maryland compares to Arizona, the team with the most similar path to ranking.
Arizona by far has the strongest victory. Not only by AP poll rank, but by the resume Oregon had at that point. Earlier on in the season, Oregon had a top 10 victory over Michigan State, cementing their status. They were remarkably close to being the #1 overall team in the AP poll, trailing FSU by a mere 11 points the week before getting upset. OSU is not a slouch in this regard either, given their victory over a Notre Dame team that as of this week is also back in the top 10.
A significant advantage is Arizona having the better strength of schedule. Disregarding the highly-ranked opponent, Arizona played 2 additional teams with winning records by that point. Maryland’s opponents, however, are… bad - Not a single team they’ve currently beaten holds a winning record at this point in the season. Sagarin puts Maryland’s current SOS at 132nd overall, behind even some FCS teams. Colley Matrix does them even dirtier - the 151th SOS with their top win being the 73rd best team in the country. However, what Maryland does benefit from is that they’ve handled their games well, given a relatively comfortable MoV. In comparison, Arizona did not experience such a luxury. Against California, Arizona had to overcome a 15-point deficit in the 4th quarter and their aspirations were quite literally up in the air as they relied on a walk-off Hail Mary to win. Still, voters were quick to put aside such shortcomings in the wake of Arizona’s upset 2 weeks later.
A last point of comparison is the voter percentages. Maryland sits 26th in the poll, with a sizeable amount of the total possible points (A team voted #1 by all voters). If Maryland manages to meet the vote share of 2014 Arizona, they’d likely end up 10th/11th (~983 points, compared to Current #10 Notre Dame with 975 points).
So going back to the original question, it definitely seems possible for Maryland to potentially beat the record, given the top 10 includes an OSU team they’d be likely to leap (poll momentum is a hell of a drug), and a Notre Dame team that was beaten by OSU. It still may be affected by things outside of Maryland’s control (Texas vs Oklahoma, the performance of other top 10 teams, etc.), but Maryland does have the chance to make history this upcoming saturday.
TL;DR: Maryland could experience an absurdly massive jump in AP ranking (from unranked) if they pull off an Upset against OSU. See you all Saturday at noon!