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The original was posted on /r/soccer by /u/The–Mash on 2025-10-13 11:12:00+00:00.
San Marino are currently last in their group and have no chance of making it to the World Cup through the group stage qualifiers.
Their last game is against Romania, who are currently third in the group, three points behind Bosnia in second.
The second team in the group will go to the play-offs against other second place finishers from other groups, as well as, crucially, the four highest ranked group winners from the latest Nations League. San Marino won their group and are currently the 14th highest ranked group winner.
However, the Nations League group winners that qualify for the World Cup or for the play-offs via their World Cup qualification groups do NOT take up one of the four spots for Nations League group winners. Since Romania are Nations League group winners and Bosnia are not, it is in San Marino’s interest that Romania finish second in the World Cup qualification group over Bosnia, so Romania don’t take one of the four Nations League spots ahead of San Marino.
So basically, San Marino need to lose to Romania, hope Romania finish above Bosnia and hope that at least 8 of the other 12 Nations League group winners finish top 2 in their World Cup qualification groups.
It’s bizarre math and in the real world, San Marino are going to get crushed in the World Cup qualification play-offs if they actually make it that far, but currently, they’re best served by playing for a loss vs Romania