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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/rubicube1 on 2025-09-26 23:51:37+00:00.
Despite the Bills, Chargers, and Colts all starting 3-0, none of them currently control their own destiny for the #1 seed. Even if say the Bills went 17-0, they do not play either the Chargers or Colts (and vice versa), meaning one or both of those teams could also finish 17-0. In that scenario, conference, division, common games, and head-to-head records would all be identical at 100%. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which depends entirely on opponents’ records and is outside the teams’ control. For example, if the rest of the AFC East is weak, a 17-0 Bills team could still lose the #1 seed to a 17-0 Colts or Chargers team with stronger divisional opponents.
The Steelers, however, face all three of the currently undefeated AFC teams. If they finish 16-1, they would own the head-to-head tiebreaker against each of them, even in a four-way tie of 16-1 records. They also play the 2-1 Bengals, which rules out a 16-1 Bengals scenario.
As for the Jaguars, currently 2-1, a 16-1 Jaguars team cannot take the tiebreaker from a 16-1 Steelers team, because their one loss came in conference play while the Steelers’ loss was out of conference.