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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/DowntownSasquatch420 on 2025-09-26 03:17:26+00:00.

I spent way too much time typing this out, so I kinda hope somebody cares to discuss it…

Might be sort of obvious the way things are progressing right now. Thus far, it’s a race between North Texas, USF, and Memphis. Boise State keeps chugging along, awaiting how the American shakes out.

UNT (4-0) takes on South Alabama (1-3) this weekend, in which the Mean Green are a -12.5 favorite; they’ll have a bye next week.

USF (3-1) has a bye this weekend, will face Charlotte (1-3) the following week.

This sets up a likely 5-0/4-1 matchup for UNT vs. USF on October 10th.

Memphis is theoretically 6-0 by the time they host USF on October 25th; they do not play UNT during the regular season.

Navy is the variable in the American, but have not played convincingly enough to make it believable that they will continue this winning trend. Yes, it’s early, but look who they’ve played so far. The Midshipmen will also conclude the regular season stretch with @ UNT, @ Notre Dame, vs. USF, @ Memphis, before their non-conference annual game with Army.

The outside variable in this matter is Notre Dame, as they affect two different G5 conferences pining for the coveted auto-bid, all the while “controlling their own destiny”. A 10-2 finish would probably land them a CFP bid; a 9-3 or below record will not.

The Irish play all P4 opponents the rest of the regular season… Except for two games: Boise State and Navy.

BSU hosts on App State this Saturday. Next week, they play @ Notre Dame. Having already lost their season opener @ USF, the Broncos need a few things things to happen in order to surge their hopes as potential MWC champs being enough to punch their ticket:

  • USF keeps winning and controls the American; loses conference championship game
  • beat Notre Dame in South Bend
  • or hope for total anarchy between all teams in the American

Last year, the MWCCG was crucial because it meant the winner between BSU/UNLV, both having been nationally ranked, would automatically ascend to the CFP. Boise State accomplished this and was undefeated in the process.

Fast forward to now, an undefeated regular season won’t be the case if they make it that far. Add in the possibility of Fresno State or UNLV protruding themselves into the spotlight of that conference.

You could make the redundant case of “anything could happen” throughout the rest of the regular season (true), but it’s shaping up that 7 teams are in reasonable contention for the G5 spot:

  • Boise State, UNLV, Fresno State
  • USF, North Texas, Memphis, (maybe) Navy

If Notre Dame wants to make it in as an Independent, they have to win-out (or start working on your conspiracy theories for that one).