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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/FootballSensei on 2025-09-11 13:42:26+00:00.
I ran 5 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 2 game are. Then for each game this week I added up its impact on every team. SEA @ PIT came out on top as the game that matters the most for which teams will make the playoffs.
- The Steelers currently have a 49.8% chance to make the playoffs. This goes up to 55.6% if they win and drops down to 40.9% if they lose, a total swing of 14.8%.
- The Seahawks playoff odds are 26.0% and this game has a total impact of 12.2% on them.
- The third most impacted team is the Lions. This game has a 1.7% impact on their playoff odds and they benefit from the Steelers winning.
If I add up the impact delta for every team, this game has a total impact of 53.8%.
Here’s the impact of this game on every team:
| Team | Optimal Winner | If Win | If Lose | Impact Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | PIT | +5.8% | -8.9% | 14.8% |
| Seahawks | SEA | +7.3% | -4.8% | 12.2% |
| Lions | PIT | +0.7% | -1.0% | 1.7% |
| Bengals | SEA | +1.0% | -0.7% | 1.7% |
| Broncos | SEA | +0.9% | -0.6% | 1.5% |
| Ravens | SEA | +0.9% | -0.6% | 1.5% |
| Vikings | PIT | +0.6% | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| Patriots | SEA | +0.8% | -0.5% | 1.3% |
| Chiefs | SEA | +0.8% | -0.5% | 1.2% |
| Cardinals | PIT | +0.5% | -0.8% | 1.2% |
| Raiders | SEA | +0.8% | -0.5% | 1.2% |
| Chargers | SEA | +0.7% | -0.5% | 1.2% |
| Packers | PIT | +0.5% | -0.7% | 1.2% |
| Commanders | PIT | +0.5% | -0.7% | 1.2% |
| Rams | PIT | +0.5% | -0.7% | 1.2% |
| Dolphins | SEA | +0.6% | -0.4% | 1.0% |
| Jaguars | SEA | +0.6% | -0.4% | 1.0% |
| Texans | SEA | +0.6% | -0.4% | 1.0% |
| Colts | SEA | +0.6% | -0.4% | 0.9% |
| Cowboys | PIT | +0.3% | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| Bears | PIT | +0.3% | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| 49ers | PIT | +0.3% | -0.4% | 0.7% |
| Eagles | PIT | +0.2% | -0.4% | 0.6% |
| Titans | SEA | +0.3% | -0.2% | 0.5% |
| Falcons | PIT | +0.2% | -0.3% | 0.4% |
| Jets | SEA | +0.2% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| Panthers | PIT | +0.1% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| Buccaneers | PIT | +0.1% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| Giants | PIT | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| Bills | SEA | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| Browns | SEA | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Saints | PIT | +0.0% | -0.0% | 0.1% |
The second most impactful game is DEN @ IND.
Here’s the full list of game impacts:
| Game | Total Impact | Most Rooted For |
|---|---|---|
| SEA @ PIT | 53.8% | PIT |
| DEN @ IND | 51.4% | IND |
| JAX @ CIN | 50.4% | JAX |
| ATL @ MIN | 45.7% | ATL |
| TB @ HOU | 45.6% | TB |
| CAR @ ARI | 44.9% | CAR |
| WSH @ GB | 42.8% | GB |
| CHI @ DET | 41.8% | CHI |
| LAR @ TEN | 41.0% | TEN |
| PHI @ KC | 40.7% | KC |
| LAC @ LV | 39.1% | LV |
| CLE @ BAL | 35.6% | CLE |
| NE @ MIA | 34.7% | MIA |
| SF @ NO | 26.0% | NO |
| NYG @ DAL | 21.2% | NYG |
| BUF @ NYJ | 15.6% | BUF |