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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/css01 on 2025-09-09 23:30:51+00:00.
One of the things I like to do after games is look at the momentum swings in the Win Probablity chart. For example, the UConn Syracuse game shows that UConn had a 96.7% chance of winning with 3:19 left in the game. then Syracuse had a 97.7% chance of winning with 31 seconds left, then it was 50/50, then it spiked back in Syracuse’s favor.
On Saturday night, I watched BC vs Michigan State. Michigan State was the home team an opened as a 3.5 pt favorite, and assuming the home team gets a three point spread just for being the home team, it appeared to be an even matchup. Throughout the game, no team ever lead by more than 1 TD, so I assumed this would be a perfect example of the win probability chart not going too far from 50/50 all game long.
www.espn.com/…/boston-college-michigan-st
But MSU had a 66.8% chance of winning in the 1st quarter up 7-0, then BC had a 74% chance of winning in the 2nd quarter up 21-14. In the 4th quarter, with the game tied at 24-24, MSU had a 80.6% chance of winning. By the fourth quarter, I felt like MSU was probably in a better position, but 80% chance of winning in a tie game in the fourth quarter seems off.
Then the graph has some CRAZY spikes in OT. BC’s chance of winning went from 97.3% when they were apparently down 14-26 in OT, then it was 47.8% chance when the game was tied 34-34, then BC had a 100% chance of winning up 40-34, then MSU had a 100% chance of winning up 42-40. Then it apparently went back to 34-34 and BC had a 58.7% chance of winning, then all the way to the right, BC had a 52.2% chance of winning a game after Michigan State won 42-40.
The graph in Overtime is completely full of errors, which makes me question everything in the graph before that. Are these errors common?