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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Prudent-Cheetah1656 on 2025-09-04 13:13:37+00:00.
In nearly every offseason ranking, in the week-by-week picks, and in playoff discussions, we hear the same thing: “Recruiting is everything. Talent wins games. Stars matter.” And sure, talent does matter - nobody’s denying that. But I started wondering if the ‘talent’ narrative was more narrative-driven than based in reality.
So I went back and looked at last year’s Power 4 matchups and tracked who had the higher 247 Talent Composite score. You’d think the more talented team would dominate, right? Nope. They only won about 55% of the time. Just barely above a coin flip. Should playoff spots really be determined by which team is ‘more talented on paper’? Should you make financial decisions based on which team has more 5-stars?
This year, I’m taking my analysis a step further:
- Each week I’m logging every FBS vs. FBS matchup (with an extra eye on P4 games).
- I record both teams’ Talent Composite score, the talent gap between them, and then whether the more talented team actually won.
- Over the course of the season, we’ll get a clean dataset showing just how often “talent” translates to results on the field.
The goal isn’t to say recruiting doesn’t matter (because it clearly does), but to see if the narrative that “the team with better players always wins” holds up in practice. Spoiler: it already looks shakier than most talking heads want to admit.
I’ll be posting updates as the season goes along. Should be fun to see if the coin-flip trend holds up, or if the numbers shift once the sample gets big enough.
Here are the week 0-1 results:
| Away | Away Talent | Home | Home Talent | More Talented Team | Difference | Talent Win | | ----- | ----------- | ----- | ----------- | ------------------ | ---------- | ---------- | | UNM | 378.8 | MICH | 907.22 | MICH | 528.42 | 1 | | NEV | 488.69 | PSU | 910.42 | PSU | 421.73 | 1 | | MARSH | 590.64 | UGA | 992 | UGA | 401.36 | 1 | | UTSA | 661.43 | TA&M | 913.38 | TA&M | 251.95 | 1 | | STAN | 707.27 | HAW | 481.2 | STAN | 226.07 | 0 | | UNLV | 700.54 | SHST | 477.35 | UNLV | 223.19 | 1 | | OHIO | 469.99 | RUT | 689.22 | RUT | 219.23 | 1 | | GAST | 611.97 | MISS | 813.11 | MISS | 201.14 | 1 | | BUFF | 513.33 | MIN | 711.04 | MIN | 197.71 | 1 | | BALL | 495.35 | PUR | 687.74 | PUR | 192.39 | 1 | | JVST | 519.93 | UCF | 709.99 | UCF | 190.06 | 1 | | WMU | 534.35 | MSU | 717.42 | MSU | 183.07 | 1 | | NEB | 821.39 | UC | 644.1 | NEB | 177.29 | 1 | | M-OH | 592.1 | WISC | 763.17 | WISC | 171.07 | 1 | | HAW | 481.2 | ARIZ | 651.62 | ARIZ | 170.42 | 1 | | ODU | 477.45 | IU | 645.34 | IU | 167.89 | 1 | | MSST | 770.03 | SMST | 602.53 | MSST | 167.5 | 1 | | AUB | 891.5 | BAY | 726.3 | AUB | 165.2 | 1 | | ALA | 992.22 | FSU | 828.45 | ALA | 163.77 | 0 | | TOL | 620.13 | UK | 763.18 | UK | 143.05 | 1 | | SYR | 727.83 | TEN | 866.57 | TEN | 138.74 | 1 | | CSU | 579.97 | WASH | 715.48 | WASH | 135.51 | 1 | | VT | 712.19 | SCAR | 833.26 | SCAR | 121.07 | 1 | | FRES | 586.84 | KU | 705.32 | KU | 118.48 | 1 | | ECU | 611.55 | NCST | 707.51 | NCST | 95.96 | 1 | | APP | 611.31 | CHAR | 526.3 | APP | 85.01 | 1 | | SHST | 477.35 | WKU | 561.36 | WKU | 84.01 | 1 | | UTAH | 706.83 | UCLA | 766.07 | UCLA | 59.24 | 0 | | UTEP | 551.88 | USU | 494.62 | UTEP | 57.26 | 0 | | ISU | 648.93 | KSU | 705.85 | KSU | 56.92 | 0 | | BSU | 610.65 | USF | 666.89 | USF | 56.24 | 1 | | CCU | 610.88 | UVA | 666.74 | UVA | 55.86 | 1 | | RICE | 530.06 | UL | 585.82 | UL | 55.76 | 0 | | CAL | 726.21 | ORST | 671.41 | CAL | 54.8 | 1 | | WYO | 489.33 | AKR | 537.21 | AKR | 47.88 | 0 | | CMU | 481.16 | SJSU | 522.91 | SJSU | 41.75 | 0 | | GT | 715.56 | COLO | 755.2 | COLO | 39.64 | 0 | | EMU | 572.9 | TXST | 612.16 | TXST | 39.26 | 1 | | ND | 905.04 | MIA | 868.26 | ND | 36.78 | 0 | | NW | 677.97 | TULN | 650.87 | NW | 27.1 | 0 | | TEM | 507.91 | UMASS | 488.73 | TEM | 19.18 | 1 | | GASO | 574.48 | FRES | 586.84 | FRES | 12.36 | 1 | | TCU | 745.01 | UNC | 753.2 | UNC | 8.19 | 0 | | LSU | 920.05 | CLEM | 918.15 | LSU | 1.9 | 1 | | TEX | 973.54 | OSU | 973.69 | OSU | 0.15 | 1 |
As we can see, the more talented team won 73.3% of the week 1 matchups, but in P4 games, the more talented team only won 50% of the time. While the sample size is small with only 12 P4 games, the results don’t differ THAT much from last year’s 55%.
I’m curious to see how this tracks from week to week. Does talent remains a consistent predictor as the season progresses, or is it more impactful early/late? Where is the inflection point in talent gap size’s predictive strength? Are there teams that consistently perform outside of expectations? What might those teams have in common?
Stay tuned!