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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/FootballSensei on 2025-09-03 17:06:29+00:00.
I ran 2 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 1 game are. Then for each game this week I added up its impact on every team. HOU @ LAR came out on top as the game that matters the most for which teams will make the playoffs.
- The Rams currently have a 54.7% chance to make the playoffs. This goes up to 60.7% if they win and drops down to 46.3% if they lose, a total swing of 14.4%.
- The Texans playoff odds are 59.8% and this game has a total impact of 13.6% on them.
- The third most impacted team is the Colts. This game has a 2.6% impact on their playoff odds and they benefit from the Rams winning.
If I add up the impact delta for every team, this game has a total impact of 56.0%.
Here’s the impact of this game on every team:
| Team | Root For | If Win | If Lose | Impact Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | LAR | +6.0% | -8.4% | 14.4% |
| Texans | HOU | +7.9% | -5.7% | 13.6% |
| Colts | LAR | +1.1% | -1.5% | 2.6% |
| Jaguars | LAR | +1.0% | -1.4% | 2.4% |
| Titans | LAR | +0.7% | -1.0% | 1.8% |
| Seahawks | HOU | +0.9% | -0.7% | 1.6% |
| Vikings | HOU | +0.9% | -0.6% | 1.5% |
| Cardinals | HOU | +0.8% | -0.6% | 1.4% |
| Commanders | HOU | +0.8% | -0.6% | 1.3% |
| Lions | HOU | +0.8% | -0.6% | 1.3% |
| Bears | HOU | +0.7% | -0.5% | 1.3% |
| 49ers | HOU | +0.7% | -0.5% | 1.2% |
| Packers | HOU | +0.7% | -0.5% | 1.1% |
| Patriots | LAR | +0.5% | -0.6% | 1.1% |
| Cowboys | HOU | +0.6% | -0.4% | 1.0% |
| Bengals | LAR | +0.3% | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| Broncos | LAR | +0.3% | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| Chargers | LAR | +0.3% | -0.4% | 0.7% |
| Dolphins | LAR | +0.3% | -0.4% | 0.7% |
| Steelers | LAR | +0.3% | -0.4% | 0.7% |
| Falcons | HOU | +0.4% | -0.3% | 0.6% |
| Eagles | HOU | +0.3% | -0.2% | 0.6% |
| Buccaneers | HOU | +0.3% | -0.2% | 0.6% |
| Ravens | LAR | +0.2% | -0.3% | 0.5% |
| Panthers | HOU | +0.3% | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| Jets | LAR | +0.2% | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| Chiefs | LAR | +0.2% | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| Raiders | LAR | +0.1% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| Giants | HOU | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| Saints | HOU | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| Bills | LAR | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Browns | LAR | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
The second most impactful game is TB @ ATL.
Here’s the full list of game impacts:
| Game | Total Impact | Most Rooted For |
|---|---|---|
| HOU @ LAR | 56.0% | LAR |
| TB @ ATL | 49.2% | TB |
| DET @ GB | 44.4% | GB |
| TEN @ DEN | 44.3% | TEN |
| MIA @ IND | 43.8% | IND |
| KC @ LAC | 43.2% | KC |
| SF @ SEA | 43.2% | SF |
| CAR @ JAX | 43.1% | JAX |
| MIN @ CHI | 42.6% | CHI |
| LV @ NE | 41.3% | LV |
| CIN @ CLE | 39.7% | CLE |
| NYG @ WSH | 39.7% | NYG |
| DAL @ PHI | 39.5% | PHI |
| PIT @ NYJ | 38.2% | NYJ |
| ARI @ NO | 37.2% | NO |
| BAL @ BUF | 24.6% | BUF |
I think it’s pretty interesting that BAL @ BUF has the lowest impact. That’s one of the games I’m most excited to watch, but since both of those teams have such high odds to win their division, the outcome has the lowest impact on the playoff picture.
Methodology:
I use Elo scores to represent relative team strength. For each game in the season I calculate win/loss odds based on the Elo of the two teams plus an adjustment for home field advantage. I do a Monte Carlo simulation of the season 2 million times and analyze the results. To get the start of season Elo ratings I combine 2 approaches. The first approach is taking the Elo score for each team from the end of last season and regressing it slightly towards the mean to account for offseason changes. The second approach is using Vegas total season win odds to infer an Elo. Elo updates during the season based on wins and losses in the standard way. Right now I do not factor in mid-season injuries, mid-season trades, or weather. I’m thinking about incorporating these factors later on though.