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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/usffan on 2025-08-22 13:58:53+00:00.

We made it, today is the last day before the 2025 CFB season starts! Tomorrow I plan to post a long recap with all of the teams and numbers used to put this together, plus a wrap up of what it would mean if these rankings actually held (which, let’s face it, they won’t). Here’s to another great season of the sport we all love!

Texas (high = 1 (10 votes), low = 8) is the consensus preseason #1 team in the countdown, and opens the season ranked #1 in the AP poll for the first time in their history. I guess that answers the age old question of “is Texas back?” The Longhorns had an impressive inaugural campaign in the SEC, finishing the regular season with the best record in the conference before losing in overtime to Georgia in the championship game. They followed that up with 2 CFP playoff wins – 38-24 over ACC champs Clemson in Austin followed by an all-time double OT Peach Bowl victory over Arizona State, before falling to the eventual national champion Ohio State Buckeyes in a Cotton Bowl that was way closer (as in Texas was driving for the potential tying score with a 1st and goal at the 1 yard line in the final minutes of the game before Jack Sawyer’s strip sack of Quinn Ewers became a scoop and score and put the game out of reach) than the 28-14 score indicated.

Roster outlook

Not unlike the team that knocked them out of the CFP last year and the team they open up with in 2025, Texas lost a ton after the season, ranking 103rd nationally in returning production. However, most of that loss was on the offensive side of the ball, where the Longhorns rank 10th lowest compared to defense, where they only rank 44th. They set a new school record with 12 players drafted by the NFL, including 3 first rounders (OT Kelvin Banks, DB Jahdae Barron and WR Matthew Golden), 2 other OL (T Cam Williams and G Hayden Conner), TE Gunnar Helm, 3 DL (Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton and Barryn Sorrell), DB Andrew Mukuba, RB Jaydon Blue, oh and QB Quinn Ewers. Though not drafted, #2 WR Isaiah Bond signed with the Cleveland Browns, meaning the Longhorns are effectively going into the season with nobody who had 500 or more yards receiving for the team last season. The highest stat guy returning is RB Quintrevion Wisner, who went for over 1,000 yards, but the name everybody’s looking at is QB Arch Manning. And it’s not like he didn’t get meaningful reps last year, stepping in when Ewers got injured in the UTSA game and starting both the Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State game. Still, that’s a ton to replace, and head coach Steve Sarkisian definitely did his part, pairing the #1 recruiting class in the country with the #25 portal class to have the overall #1 incoming class in 2025. There are 4 true freshmen and the two deep (WRs Jaime Ffrench and Daylan McCutcheon, LT Nick Brooks and DB Jonah Williams), plus 4 new portal starters (Stanford WR Emmett Mosley, Cal TE Jack Endries, Purdue NT Cole Brevard and Syracuse DE Maraad Watson), so the opener is going to be very telling about how well all these new parts are going to gel.

Schedule and outlook

And that opener, at Ohio State, is not only a rematch of last year’s CFP semifinal, but also a matchup of #1 and #2 on these aggregated rankings, not to mention a potential preview of a rematch in the playoffs again this year. After that hot August debut, the Longhorns effectively get September off (hosting San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston before getting a bye) before heading into the SEC schedule in October (Texas clearly hasn’t adopted the November cupcake… yet). They make their first ever trip to the Swamp to play Florida on October 4 ahead of the Red River Shootout at the Texas State Fair. They then go back on the road for two more consecutive roadies (Kentucky and Mississippi State) before they get their home SEC Opener on November 1 against Vandy. After another bye, they make their first trip to Athens to take on Georgia (amazed that this will be Texas’ first games at both Florida and Georgia in the same year and that both made multiple trips to Austin in the past) before closing out the season at home against Arkansas and then the Lone Star Showdown against Texas A&M on Black Friday. There are enough big matchups on there that Texas doesn’t have to be perfect to make the CFP, but enough potential pitfalls that they have to win at least some to get in. They feel like a pretty safe bet to get there, but this also doesn’t feel like a no-brainer #1 team entering the season.