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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/usffan on 2025-08-17 13:20:25+00:00.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here.

Notre Dame (high = 2, low = 7) sits at #6 in the cumulative rankings for 2025, and is probably the first absolute lock for the CFP we’ve had, which speaks to so much of the uncertainty about just about every other team in FBS. They’re coming off a season where they were in the CFP championship game and held their own against Ohio State, making the Buckeyes kick a late FG to put the game out of reach. And that was in year 3 of Marcus Freeman, surpassing Brian Kelly’s 3rd year (though the Irish made the national championship game in Kelly’s third year, the thrashing the received from Alabama knocked them to #3 in the final polls, worse than last year’s #2. To add insult to injury, all those wins were later vacated. For you young’uns who didn’t know, the NCAA once upon a time had balls and teeth). But that was last year. Why do I think Notre Dame is a mortal lock for the CFP in 2025, and another crack at breaking their longest drought of national championships (currently at 36 years) since Calvin Coolidge won the 1924 presidential election?

Roster outlook

Part of the reason is that Notre Dame, unlike so many of the other 2025 title contenders (looking at you, Ohio State and Texas) returns a decent amount of production. The Irish rank 62nd in the country, including 23rd on defense despite the fact that 4 of the 6 players drafted in 2025 (CB Benjamin Morrison, S Xavier Watts, LB Jack Kiser and DL Rylie Mills) were on that side of the ball. One could argue that the biggest loss to the NFL might have been DC Al Golden (something a Miami fan would have trouble believing). On offense, the Irish also saw TE Mitchell Evans and QB Riley Leonard get drafted. But this is about what’s returning, and the biggest returning name is RB Jeremiyah Love, who totaled > 1,100 yards and 17 rushing TDs last season and Mel Kiper’s top RB coming out of college next season. They also bring back leading WR Jayden Greathouse, who we last saw go off for over 100 yards and 2 TDs in the national championship game. But Freeman definitely understood the assignment, bringing in the #12 recruiting class in the country paired with a sprinkling of transfers to plug in, including Wisconsin WR Will Pauling, Virginia WR Malachi Fields, Alabama CB DeVonta Smith and Louisville DL Jared Dawson. Notre Dame’s QB room will be very different, with backup and damn near national championship hero Steve Angeli off to Syracuse and Tyler Buchner switching positions (which I guess is better than switching sports) and a true QB battle of untested that appears to be trending toward RS freshman CJ Carr over RS sophomore Kenny Minchey.

Schedule and outlook

OK, you say, but how does a completely untested QB make Notre Dame a CFP lock? It doesn’t. What does is what appears to be the most favorable Irish schedule in quite a while coupled with a 2007-level amount of uncertainty among most other contenders. Yes, it opens with the Irish taking on #10 Miami on the road (which, let’s face it, will see Hard Rock Stadium filled with plenty of Notre Dame fans) before welcoming Texas A&M into South Bend. I daresay those are the two biggest tests the Irish will face, and there is no better time to face them than out of the gate, giving the team a chance to recover in the polls. They then host Purdue for the Shillelagh Trophy (I owe Purdue fans after screwing up the Old Oaken Bucket earlier in the countdown) and then traveling to Fayetteville to play the Hogs. While those are both P4 opponents, they’re against teams that will be at the bottom of those conferences, and gives the Irish a chance to prepare for what is probably the best remaining test on their schedule, a visit from Boise State. They stay home for the next couple of weeks, hosting NC State and USC for the JEWELLED Shillelagh – don’t get them twisted!) before a bye and then a roadie to Boston College. The season wraps up with Navy and Syracuse in South Bend, plus road trips to Pitt and Stanford. Notre Dame will be prohibitive favorites in 9 or 10 of their home games and avoid Northern Illinois, and a 10-2 Notre Dame who doesn’t face the chance of a conference championship 3rd loss is why I think they’re our first lock for the CFP.