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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/garygoblins on 2025-08-16 19:48:59+00:00.
Social media was getting worked up based on the recent FPI changes made by ESPN yesterday (August 15).The updated rankings had fairly significant changes, in some cases, compared to the rankings they first published in June. Which is interesting, because not much has changed for many teams during that time period, at least personnel wise. Some people from the ACC quickly picked up on changes that seemed to particularly, negatively, impact ACC teams. They also pointed out multiple SEC teams that were risers in the rankings, at the top end. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee went as far as to say “the whole thing is rigged” in response to a tweet by CFBKings (regarding the FPI rankings). x.com/CFBKings/status/1956524313382637705
The obvious implication by these people is that ESPN is modifying the FPI rankings to positively benefit the conference they have a financial interest in (SEC). It got me curious if the numbers bear this out.
At first glance, comparing average change in ranking by conference does seem to confirm that the ACC was disproportionately impacted by these changes. But it seems to negate the idea that the SEC got a boost with the updated rankings.
| Conference | Average Rank Change |
|---|---|
| Sun Belt | 3.5 |
| Big 12 | 3.06 |
| Big Ten | 1.56 |
| Mountain West | 0.17 |
| SEC | -.044 |
| Ind | -0.5 |
| MAC | -0.85 |
| American | -1.14 |
| CUSA | -1.92 |
| Pac-12 | -2 |
| ACC | -3.88 |
You can see the ACC is far and away the most negatively impacted conference in the updated rankings, dropping nearly 4 spots on average. However, interestingly, the SEC doesn’t seem to benefit much (at all). They actually drop about half a ranking on average. However, the Sun Belt, Big 12 and Big Ten (to a lesser extent) all see pretty good average improvement.
However, looking through the rankings there were, unsurprisingly, certain teams that were outliers in how high they rose or fell, which was impacting the average change per conference. The following table shows the 5 highest risers and 5 biggest losers based on the change.
| Team | Conference | June Rank | August Rank | Rank Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 97 | 79 | 18 |
| Memphis | American | 65 | 51 | 14 |
| Rutgers | Big Ten | 55 | 42 | 13 |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 45 | 33 | 12 |
| Wyoming | Mountain West | 122 | 110 | 12 |
| Louisiana | Sun Belt | 71 | 81 | -10 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 28 | 39 | -11 |
| UAB | American | 115 | 128 | -13 |
| Liberty | CUSA | 77 | 91 | -14 |
| Florida State | ACC | 48 | 65 | -17 |
The largest movement in ranking change seems to with lower ranked team, generally. But there are a few big movers like Rutgers and Iowa State that moved up significantly to competitive rankings (30’s to 42’s). On the flip side Georgia Tech and Florida State (in particular) were significantly impacted by the changes dropping 11 and 17 spots, respectively. Once again, this seems to show the ACC in particular being impacted by the changes.
But what if we look at the top 25? Are the changes still similarly detrimental to the ACC? Do they benefit the SEC more?
| Conference | Average Rank Change |
|---|---|
| Big 12 | 3.33 |
| Big Ten | 2 |
| Ind | 1 |
| SEC | 0.17 |
| ACC | -4 |
It actually gets worse for the ACC, their average ranking drop increased to 4! Thats excluding the two largest drops in the conference (Florida State and Georgia Tech). The SEC improves some, but it’s a minimal change. Once again suggesting that these ranking updates don’t particularly help the SEC. We still see the Big 12 and Big Ten benefiting the most.
We can also take a look at the change in the top 25 by team.
| Team | Conference | June Rank | August Rank | Rank Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | Big 12 | 29 | 22 | 7 |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 31 | 25 | 6 |
| USC | Big Ten | 19 | 14 | 5 |
| Florida | SEC | 18 | 13 | 5 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 15 | 11 | 4 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 15 | 11 | 4 |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 21 | 18 | 3 |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 17 | 15 | 2 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Notre Dame | Ind | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| SMU | ACC | 20 | 19 | 1 |
| Arizona State | Big 12 | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Missouri | SEC | 23 | 23 | 0 |
| Alabama | SEC | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Penn State | Big 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Big 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Georgia | SEC | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| LSU | SEC | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Texas | SEC | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8 | 9 | -1 |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Oklahoma | SEC | 16 | 20 | -4 |
| Clemson | ACC | 11 | 16 | -5 |
| Auburn | SEC | 14 | 21 | -7 |
| Miami | ACC | 9 | 17 | -8 |
BYU and Indiana see the largest move upwards in the rankings. Followed by USC, Florida, South Carolina and Ole Miss all moving up 4 to 5 spots. The top 10 is largely unchanged, until you get to Miami who drops 8 spots, from 9 all the way to 17! Auburn also drops 7 spots to 21. Clemson and Oklahmoa are the next biggest movers, dropping 5 and 4 spots respectively.
While the most recent changes didn’t result in significant movement for SEC teams, the SEC is still far and away viewed as the strongest conference by FPI, which likely plays into the lower volatility seen in their ranking movement. Their teams already disproportionately fill up the top ranks, who move less on average in the rankings.
We can also take a final look at average FPI rank by conference to show this.
| Conference | June Average Rank | August Average Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SEC | 18.69 | 19.12 |
| Big Ten | 38.11 | 36.56 |
| Big 12 | 44.44 | 41.38 |
| Ind | 45.5 | 46 |
| ACC | 46.53 | 50.31 |
| Sun Belt | 93.93 | 90.43 |
| American | 90.36 | 91.5 |
| Mountain West | 96.67 | 96.5 |
| MAC | 109.31 | 110.15 |
| CUSA | 116.58 | 118.5 |
Its not clear what changes ESPN made. However, it is clear whatever they updated significantly punished the ACC. The Big Ten and Big 12 saw small improvements, but still lag significantly behind the SEC. It is interesting that there are such profound changes, in some cases, during a period where little roster change is occurring and no games are being played.