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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/usffan on 2025-08-13 14:42:05+00:00.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here.

Miami (high = 9, low = 21), who comes in at #10 on the aggregated rankings and the 2nd highest ranked team in the ACC, sits on an island in numerous ways. Not only are they 500 miles from their closest conference member (though, with recent conference expansion, that’s less of an outlier than it used to be), they’re also probably the most singularly entrenched team in their position in the poll. I’ve been using the average ranking of each team across 18 different polls to put this countdown together. Most of the teams have been within 1 in terms of that average of the team above or below them. Miami, at 11.78, is 2.33 points higher than Michigan (14.11, who, by comparison, was only 0.22 points ahead of Florida). And the #9 team sits at 8.39, 3.39 points better than Miami. So in other words, the consensus seems to be pretty strong that Miami is the 10th best team in the country.

And that really shouldn’t be too shocking. The Hurricanes were in the conversation for the CFP last year, rising all the way to #4 in the rankings before dropping their last 2 road games of the season (yet another loss to Georgia Tech, quickly becoming Mario Cristobal’s Achilles heel, and Syracuse) knocked them out of the ACC championship game, and then blowing a 10 point lead in the Pop-Tarts Bowl to Iowa State. The defense was sufficiently bad (giving up 83 points in their last 2 games) that Mario fired DC Lance Guidry and replaced him with former Minnesota DC Corey Hetherman.

Roster outlook

There is no doubt that Miami lost a lot of talent after their 2024 run. The biggest loss was clearly QB Cam Ward, who was the #1 draft pick (Mel Kiper in shambles) to the Tennessee Titans. Cam was one of 7 Canes drafted last season, (TE Elijah Arroyo, OL Jalen Rivers, LB Francisco Mauigoa, DE Tyler Baron, K Andres Borregalos and RB Damien Martinez), but not included in that list was WR Xavier Restrepo, who signed as a UDFA with the Titans as well. That’s not to say the cupboard’s completely bare. Backup RB Mark Fletcher returns, and is slated to be the opening day starter. And 80% of the starting OL, the area that is Mario’s specialty, is composed of guys who were already getting reps last season. But the other thing that is Mario’s specialty is recruiting, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Canes have the top ranked recruiting AND portal class in the ACC. The latter netted them 9 four star players, including former Georgia QB Carson Beck, who may or may not be getting cheered on by Hanna Cavinder. He’ll be throwing to former LSU WR CJ Daniels and BYU WR Keelan Marion while getting snaps from TCU C James Brockermeyer. They’ll also have a wholly imported secondary, including Michigan State CB Charles Brantley, Washington State CB Emmanuel Karnley, Jacksonville State S Zechariah Poyser and lawsuit-worthy DB Xavier Lucas, formerly of Wisconsin. Hell, even K Bert Auburn is coming in!

Schedule and outlook

We’ll find out if the Canes are real pretty quickly, since they open hosting Notre Dame, who will also be breaking in a new QB. They follow up the Catholics vs. Convicts opener with four straight games vs. in-state schools, Bethune-Cookman, USF, DJ Lagway (?) and the Gators and finally go on the road to Doak Campbell to play FSU. Following a bye, they host Louisville and Stanford before actually leaving the state of Florida for the first time on November 1 to play at SMU. The Canes close things out with Syracuse and NC State at home before playing their last 2 games on the road at Virginia Tech and Pitt. Normally, I’d say that if Miami can get through September unscathed, they could legitimately be looking at a 12-0 run to the ACC title game. But Mario’s shown a pretty good record of being able to beat the big opponents (remember him taking Oregon into the Shoe and knocking off Ohio State?), only to drop games in the dumbest of ways (TAKE A FUCKING KNEE!!!). So leaving the Canes in this kind of no man’s land that would yet again have them on the fringe of the playoffs feels like the right place to start. Could Miami manage to win their first ACC title ever? Sure. Does anybody want to bet that they will? Probably not. Well, maybe John Mateer…