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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/London-Roma-1980 on 2023-09-19 16:49:10.
In this post, I will list ESPN FPI’s current chances of winning each of the conferences. If your team has at least a 1% chance, I will list them. All teams are listed in order of chance to win. Teams in bold at the beginning of a post add up to more than 50%, and are thus the big favorites. Teams in italics have at least a 1% chance of finishing the season undefeated.
ACC – Florida State 41.8%, Miami FL 17.2%, Syracuse 14.5%, Louisville 8.5%, North Carolina 6.8%, Duke 5.4%, Clemson 4.3%
AMERICAN – SMU 52.6%, Tulane 22.5%, Memphis 16.3%, Texas-San Antonio 5.5%, Rice 1.3%
BIG 12 – Oklahoma 55.3%, Texas 31.0%, Kansas State 4.9%, Central Florida 3.7%, TCU 1.9%, Texas Tech 1.5%, Cincinnati 1.2%
BIG “TEN” – Ohio State 57.0%, Penn State 22.1%, Michigan 8.5%, Iowa 5.2%, Wisconsin 4.5%
CONFERENCE USA – Liberty 54.8%, Western Kentucky 23.4%, MTSU 10.4%, Louisiana Tech 5.8%, New Mexico State 3.0%, UTEP 1.7%
MID-AMERICAN – Toledo 44.7%, Miami Ohio 22.4%, Ohio U. 12.8%, Ball State 4.8%, Central Michigan 4.0%, Northern Illinois 3.6%, Bowling Green 3.3%, Kent 1.7%, Eastern Michigan 1.0%
MOUNTAIN WEST – Fresno State 27.4%, Boise State 21.3%, Air Force 16.8%, Wyoming 15.5%, San Jose State 11.1%, Utah State 3.0%, UNLV 1.8%, San Diego State 1.7%
PAC-?2 – Southern Cal 39.5%, Oregon 27.3%, Washington 19.4%, Utah 4.9%, Oregon State 4.8%, UCLA 3.1%
SEC – Georgia 46.8%, Alabama 23.1%, LSU 14.2%, Ole Miss 8.5%, Florida 2.4%, Texas A&M 2.4%
SUN BELT – Coastal Carolina 24.7%, South Alabama 19.8%, Marshall 15.6%, Appalachian State 10.7%, Texas State 9.1%, Louisiana 5.9%, Georgia State 5.6%, Troy 3.7%, Georgia Southern 3.3%
And the big one:
NATIONAL TITLE – Ohio State 21.3%, Oklahoma 16.1%, Georgia 11.4%, Texas 8.2%, Southern Cal 8.1%, Penn State 6.2%, Florida State 5.1%, Oregon 4.8%, Alabama 3.9%, Washington 2.9%, Notre Dame 2.5%, LSU 2.4%, Ole Miss 2.4%, Michigan 1.2%, Miami FL 1.0%