This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Kimber80 on 2023-09-18 02:08:24.
Well week Three is in the books so time to hand out our dirty bird awards for the week. This week there were two qualifying games (at least that I found, as always corrections are welcome), so let’s get to it:
This week’s winner … Colorado State Rams
Colorado State … 99.4% chance to beat the Colorado Buffaloes
The Situation: Leading Neon Deion’s team 28-20 with just 2:06 remaining, the Rams have the Buffs back up at their own two yard line, and stuff the Colorado runner after a two-yard gain, leaving the home team 96 yards from a game-tying TD.
What Happened Next: We all know what happened next - Shedeur Sanders flipped the switch to Brady Mode and led his team 96 yards down the field for a game-tying TD. Colorado then converted the two-point try to send the game in to overtime, where they won 43-35 in the second round of overtime play.
Congratulations, Rams!
Honorable Mention … Old Dominion Monarchs
ODU … 92.4% chance to beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Situation: Leading ACC Powerhouse Wake Forest 24-13, ODU has Wake in a 3rd down and 11 hole at their own 39 yard line with under 11 minutes remaining.
What Happened Next: On the very next play, Wake would complete a 14 yard pass to keep the possession going. The next play would be a 48-yard TD strike to cut the ODU lead to 28-20. After receiving the kickoff, the Monarchs would gain one first down at their own 35 yard line, but on third and nine from around there, the ODU QB would be strip-sacked, with Wake taking over at the ODU six after the ball was returned to that point. Two plays later, and with still more than six minutes left, Wake would score the game-winning points, going ahead 28-24.
Congratulations, Old Dominion!
Criteria: According to ESPN’s “Win Probability Factor”, biggest blown 4th quarter or OT leads in terms of % chance to win in a game involving an FBS team, must reach 90% threshold in 4th quarter to qualify for award. Winning Percentage is the peak win probability at any time in the final quarter. If % is very close, priority is given to favorites that blow leads over underdogs that blow leads and P5 that blow leads over G5 who do so.
Note that I also exclude games where the “win probability factor” seems messed up. For example, in week one I omitted Bryant vs FIU because the game play by play near the end of the game contained what appeared to be errors. Also, the WPF seemed messed up near the very end of the week one VT-ODU game, but not earlier so I counted the earlier value. Finally, I do not necessarily give awards for every blown lead that meets the criteria. Generally, I cap it at three games.