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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/hallach_halil on 2025-07-03 09:51:37+00:00.
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These last two months have been loaded with video content, discussing basically every single offseason move made by all 32 teams and, most recently, going through one burning question for each of them. So now it’s time for one of my favorite projects in written form every year – breakout candidates. Split up into offense and then defense next week, we’re looking at seven players on each side of the ball, coming off their rookie or second season, who I project to make a leap in 2026.
Since it’s tough to set the guidelines for what would qualify a “breakout” for the purposes of this exercise, I’m relying mostly on statistical metrics that the players in question haven’t reached yet – no 1000-yard rushers or receivers, players that have scored double-digit touchdowns, earned a Pro Bowl/All-Pro nominations or are just generally considered one of the better performers at their respective positions already. I also generally stay away from players who have barely seen action in the pros yet. That makes names like Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy and Steelers offensive tackle Troy Fautanu ineligible, for example.
Chase Brown, Khalil Shakir and Cam Jurgens all delivered on the lofty expectations I set for them last July, while Anthony Richardson is someone I’m still rooting for to reach his sky-high potential. Here’s this year’s list:
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Quarterback – Drake Maye, Patriots
Originally one of the top-five quarterback recruits in the country, Maye initially took a redshirt with the Tarheels before putting together one of the most illustrious two-year stretches in ACC history, combining for over 9100 total passing and rushing yards, with 86 touchdowns vs. 16 interceptions. Personally, I viewed him as the clear number two quarterback prospect in the 2024 draft class, in a tier with USC’s Caleb Williams, with a massive drop-off to the rest of the class. Considering Jayden Daniels ended up winning Offensive Rookie of the Year with Washington, that gap wasn’t justified in retrospect. Yet, I feel justified in my faith of Drake and I believe a case can be made that he showed the skills to be a true franchise QB as much as anyone in that class. Although I thought concerns about his immediate readiness to start were overblown, the Patriots’ initial plan was to give him time to develop behind veteran Jacoby Brissett. That was thrown overboard once they lost four straight games following a pretty shocking week one win at Cincinnati. Maye only ended up going 3-and-9 as a starter, but completed 66.6% of his passes for nearly 2300 yards and a 15 TD-to-10 INT ratio, and to the surprise of people who didn’t pay as close attention to him in college, he ran for over 400 yards and two scores on 54 carries. Those numbers are made significantly more impressive by the level of difficulty he was operating under, considering their issues in protection, and arguably the weakest wide receiver groups in the NFL, killing the guy throwing them the ball with pivotal drops and not being able to secure targets through contact.
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Statistically, Drake individually made up the exact line of demarcation between positive and just negative EPA per play (26th among QBs with 300+ dropbacks), but he was right in the middle of the pack (17th) in dropback success rate (47.5%). That mark was tied with the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, for reference. One of the main criticisms about him coming out of UNC was the lack of consistent accuracy, as a result of mechanical inefficiencies. When I wrote about him among then-rookies and second-year quarterbacks (LINK !!) back in November, through six starts in the pros, Maye ranked third behind only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith in what pro-football-reference labels as “on-target rate” of his passes (80.7%). That number dropped a little bit until the season concluded (76.2%). Part of that was him sort of guiding the ball to a spot at times, instead of actually letting it rip, as well as letting his arm follow through to the opposite hip-pocket, like oldschool coaches used to teach, but as a result you saw some passes nose-dive on him, short of the intended target. Other than a couple of deep touchdowns to Kayshon Boutte up the right sideline, the numbers for Drake outside the numbers 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage are pretty rough. Now, I absolutely don’t want to take all the onus off the quarterback here, but based on what I saw on tape, I think that much more so is a reflection of the wide receiver talent on that roster. There were several “on-purpose” misses deeper down the field because his guys weren’t in a favorable spot. In the dropback game, they ran fairly elementary passing concepts – double slants, stick, spacing, salem (hitch + dig wrapped over top). Drake was very willing to hammer away with free-access throws on quick in-breakers against a safety playing with an extensive cushion for example, but there were also some beautiful tear-drops on fades into the boundary and when required, he showed no qualms about trying to hit tight-window throws, such as whistling the ball past the ear-hole of a widening hook defender or a few awesome seam balls just over the helmet of a trailing linebacker. Along with that, they’d run these heavy play-action concepts with basically two routes in the pattern, such as a deep post and an over route in front of it, where you’re trying to put the single-high safety in conflict, only the corners were typically able to stick to the hip-pocket of those potential targets. The one guy Drake was actually comfortable with anticipating throws and letting the ball go prior to the break was veteran tight-end Hunter Henry, whom he’d pepper in the quick game. As a result, the guy who had led the FBS in what Pro Football Focus labels as “big-time throws” the previous two seasons finished with only 14 BTTs compared to 16 turnover-worthy plays (while the percentage rates were just tilted towards the former being higher by 0.2%).
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Although the numbers for the offense run by Maye compared to veteran Jacoby Brissett, who started off the season, weren’t drastically different, he at least provided a spark with his play-making ability. He stands strong inside the pocket and delivers throws with pressure closing in on him. His front-shoulder remains pointed downfield as he climbs the pocket before flipping the ball out to his outlet in the flats, if he doesn’t like what he sees otherwise. And when he does have to retreat, he pedals away from rushers and can create plenty of velocity without a clean platform to release from. Overall, he was pressured on 37.4% of his dropbacks as a rookie. Although some of his brightest moments came when evading bodies in the pocket and creating outside of it, his ultimate 21.5% pressure-to-sack conversion rate isn’t great. Yet, considering he was right at average with a time-to-throw of 2.82 seconds, how frequently he was heated up by the defense made life pretty difficult for him. Part of that was the amount of screen passes they ended up throwing, in order to slow down the pass-rush at least to some degree, which Maye drawing in aggressive D-linemen was a key piece in setting up. When you go to PFF’s measurement of pressures with some responsibility on the quarterback (compared to his protection), Drake was right there at 14.3% with reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year and the pick right before him, Jayden Daniels. Even more impressive, he was actually the slightly more efficient scrambler, gaining 407 yards on 45 such attempts. He can quickly punish rushers off the edge not aiming at his outside hip, with his sudden burst to get around them or wiggle himself out of the grasp of D-linemen. Adding in the nine extra designed carries (mostly sneaks), he finished with 12 missed tackles forced and he averaged a massive 3.81 yards after contact – that number is right there with any player in the league. You rarely see defenders actually take him to the ground with force, rather than getting shoved out of bounds or tripped up on an angle, with that strong lower body to slide off glancing shots. The one thing he’ll need to clean up however, is doing a better job protecting the ball with bodies around him, as he fumbled nine times in 12 starts (six lost).
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I understand that the analytical case for Maye making a jump in year two isn’t the strongest, but if he can become a little more consistent with his release, paired with what he can provide on secondary-reaction plays, I believe the future is very bright. The main reason for optimism aside from the individual talent is the support system now around him, with steadier edges of the O-line, one of the best offensive play-callers of the 21st century in Josh McDaniels providing easier solutions, and then they added so much more explosiveness to their skill-position group on day two of the draft in particular, with Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson and Washington State WR Kyle Williams. There are several moving pieces with this completely overhauled coaching staff and having to figure out the lineup…
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