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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/RJEP22 on 2025-07-03 13:18:05+00:00.
WE’RE GOING THROUGH EACH P4 TEAM’S SCHEDULE AND PICKING EVERY GAME!
Today we have the Illinois Fighting Illini!
Returning production data should never be taken as gospel, but when you are top 5 in the nation in returning production from a 10 win team, that says a lot about your team. Illinois is looking to make 2025 schedule by capitalizing on the most momentum Champaign has seen in a while.
Bret Bielema has turned Illinois into a solid Tier-2 Big Ten program and has everyone he needs coming back in 2025. QB Luke Altmyer will lead the offense for a third year amd will be behind an offensive line that returns all 5 starters. There are also some key skill positions returning as well as transfer WR Hudson Clement from West Virginia. The offense should be able to pick up right where it left off.
The key will be how portal additions across the defensive line pan out. Any improvement in the trenches for this unit could be crucial as this team gave up 28 or more points to the likes of Northwestern, Purdue, and Rutgers last year. An improved defense can turn those close wins into comfortable wins, close losses into close wins, and bad losses into coin-flips.
SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN
W vs Western Illinois
W @ Duke
W vs Western Michigan
W @ Indiana
L vs USC
W @ Purdue
L vs Ohio State
BYE
L @ Washington
W vs Rutgers
BYE
W vs Maryland
W @ Wisconsin
W vs Northwestern
If I asked Illini fans what they though the most important game on this schedule was, I imagine I would get a few different answers, but most would center around the trips to Indiana, Washington, and Wisconsin. You wouldn’t expect to beat Ohio State, even at home, but that is the only game you’ll be more than a touchdown underdog in. Might be the only game they aren’t favored in period.
To me, the most important game for the Illini in 2025 is the trip to Duke in week 2. I think the entire season hinges on this game. Win it, and every goal this team has is there for the taking. Win it, and 10-2 is very much on the table, and that likely means a playoff berth. Lose that game though, and we’re talking about all the oxygen getting sucked out of the room in just week 2. It would mean having to go 8-1 in Big Ten play in order to stay in the playoff mix, which would be an astronomical task. This is a must win game.
Beyond the Duke game, we are looking at 4 Big Ten games that will define the season. @ Indiana, vs USC, @ Washington, and @ Wisconsin. It’s not ideal that 3 of these are on the road, or that 3 of them are against teams that want the very same things out of this season as Illinois, or that the trip to Madison could be against a team desperate to make a bowl on senior day. They’re just not great spots, even though this could be a great team.
My prediction is that they are able to split these 4 games, which would mean falling just short of their hopes in 2025. I do not say this confidently, however. Washington and USC are both hanging their hopes on new starting QB’s, and any bit of underperformance could see those teams slip out of the 2nd tier in the Big Ten.
Assuming they beat Duke, I feel great about predicting 9 wins for this team and I even think 10 is more likely than 8. I think they will be favored in 10 games and have all the pieces in place to make a real push at the Big Ten title game and the CFP, but unfortunately there are just too many punches to take on the road to where I see them falling just short. Either way, I’m booking the over.