This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/permanentimagination on 2025-06-24 19:51:28+00:00.
2024 season, earned 2025 1OA- Will Levis; disasterous sophomore year after up and down but more down rookie year
2023 season, earned 2024 1OA- Bryce Young; disasterous rookie year
2022 season, earned 2023 1OA- Justin Fields (with the help of nathan peterman and trevor simean); up and down but more down sophomore year after very bad rookie showing
2021 season, earned 2022 1OA- Trevor Lawrence; poor rookie campaign
2020 season, earned 2021 1OA- Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, and a rookie “Jake Luton”
2019 season, earned 2020 1OA- vet Andy Dalton and rookie “Ryan Finley”
2018 season, earned 2019 1OA- Josh Rosen; disastrous rookie campaign
2017 season, earned 2018 1OA- DeShone Kizer; disasterous rookie year
2016 season, earned 2017 1OA- veterans Robert Griffin, Josh McCown (accounting for 8 games); rookies Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan (accounting for 8 games)
2015 season, earned 2016 1OA- rookie Marcus Mariotta (and a couple games of zach mettenberger). Honestly don’t remember how good he was, so I won’t say. (This pick ended up being traded to the Rams to use on Jared Goff.)
So we have five first year QBs taking most of the snaps in teams picking first overall, two second year QB’s, and two old vet QBs. And then we have the 2016 browns who had half their starts by rookies and half by vets. So if you want to count it this way, over the past 10 years, we’ve had 75% of first overall picks be earned by quarterbacks in their first and second years (splitting the '16 browns). Of course, 10 years is arbitrary, and in 2014 it was mostly josh mccown with the help of second year mike glennon, and it’s not as though these quarterbacks bear all or even most of the responsibility, but it is a noteworthy pattern. Curious to see who you guys think will have it in 2025 and if this historic data is predictive.