This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/tmart12 on 2025-06-06 14:52:35+00:00.
To measure the “accuracy” of a preseason, I compared each system’s preseason rankings as tracked by Massey Composite to the final Massey Composite.
Analysis includes all 38 polls that have a full 134 team preseason ranking.
Average miss is defined as the average difference of a team’s preseason ranking per the specific poll to the Massey Composite end of season ranking in absolute value (# of spots wrong).
Preseason 2024 Massey Composite
Avg Miss Relative to Final Consensus:
| Rank | System | Avg. Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dokter Entropy | 19.7 |
| 2 | Kelly Ford | 20.3 |
| T3 | Sagarin | 20.6 |
| T3 | Donchess Inference | 20.6 |
| 5 | TeamRankings Pred | 20.7 |
| 6 | PiRate | 20.9 |
| 7 | Simmons | 21.4 |
| 8 | Moore | 21.9 |
| 9 | SP+ | 22.1 |
| 10 | ESPN FPI | 22.3 |
| 11 | ARGH | 22.4 |
| 12 | Massey Composite | 22.6 |
| 13 | Pugh | 22.7 |
| 14 | Muus | 23.0 |
| 15 | Congrove | 23.4 |
| 16 | Massey | 23.5 |
| 17 | Laz Index | 23.6 |
| 18 | Fremeau | 23.9 |
| 19 | B Wilson Empirical | 24.2 |
| 20 | Kambour | 24.4 |
| 21 | Kirkpatrick | 24.7 |
| 22 | OSCAR | 24.7 |
| 23 | England | 24.7 |
| 24 | Round Robin Win % | 25.0 |
| 25 | Born | 25.3 |
| 26 | Splunty | 25.3 |
| 27 | Packard | 25.5 |
| 28 | Dwiggins | 25.6 |
| 28 | Sorensen | 25.6 |
| 30 | Daniel Curry Index | 25.6 |
| 31 | Wilson | 25.7 |
| 32 | Howell | 26.5 |
| 33 | Director of Info | 26.8 |
| 34 | PerformanZ | 27.1 |
| 35 | Billingsley | 27.2 |
| 36 | Power Up Rankings | 29.6 |
| 37 | Loudsound | 30.1 |
| 38 | DeSimone | 31.1 |