This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/DiggingNoMore on 2025-06-02 16:06:10+00:00.

Last year, the Bengals beat the Panthers by a score of 34-24. Sure, games have ended with closer scores, I’ll give you that. But the final score being close doesn’t necessarily mean the game was statistically even. You may recall the time that the Texans crushed the Steelers 24-6 while getting outgained 422-47 yards.

I wanted to know which game was a dead heat across the board. To figure this out, I went through every NFL game (since 1947 when these particular stats started being reliably tracked) and calculated the maximum differential of a number of stats. For example, since 1947, the maximum first down differential of a game is 34, when the Packers got 37 to the Eagles’ 3 first downs in 1962.

So, for each game, I found the difference between the two team’s first downs and then divided it by 34 (the maximum first down difference) to normalize it.

I repeated this with other stats, too. Namely: rush attempts, rush yards, rush touchdowns, pass completions, pass attempts, pass yards, pass touchdowns, interceptions thrown, number of sacks taken (if the game was 1964 or later), sack yards lost, fumbles, fumbles lost, number of penalties, and penalty yardage. And then summed them up. This gave me a “closeness score”. You’ll notice that I didn’t include the final score, because I wanted to see what the scores would be in the statistically even games.

Here is an image of the formula, if that helps: imgur.com/a/W9ARw7d

The formula could definitely be improved by adding some more stats and by weighing them differently. We’ll need someone smarter than me, though, to figure out how to weigh them. This is a pretty good starting point, though, I think.

Anyway, the winner for the statistically closest game of all time was the Cardinals over the Cowboys 20-17 in 1981.

Stat Cardinals Cowboys
First Downs 18 17
Rushing 29 for 115 and 1 TD 33 for 140 and 1 TD
Passing 16-29 for 199 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT 15-28 for 182 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Sacks 3 sacks for 15 yards lost 3 sacks for 16 yards lost
Fumbles lost 2 of 3 fumbles lost 1 of 3 fumbles
Penalties 5 for 41 yards 5 for 45 yards

Top 5 Closest

  1. Cardinals over Cowboys, 20-17 in 1981 (closeness score of 0.42)
  2. Seahawks over Oilers, 27-24 in 1988 (closeness score of 0.47)
  3. Dolphins over Patriots, 16-13 (in OT) in 1980 (closeness score of 0.49)
  4. Bengals over Panthers, 34-24 in 2024 (closeness score of 0.56)
  5. Chargers over Bengals, 26-21 in 2018 (closeness score of 0.63)

Top 5 Most Lopsided

  1. Broncos over Jets, 33-24 in 1967 (closeness score of 6.26)
  2. Patriots over Titans, 59-0 in 2009 (closeness score of 5.93)
  3. Chiefs over Raiders, 31-17 in 1980 (closeness score of 5.81)
  4. 49ers over Dons, 38-21 in 1948 (closeness score of 5.78)
  5. Bears over Packers, 52-31 in 1955 (closeness score of 5.77)

The most lopsided games were actually interesting to take a closer look at. The most lopsided statistically, was only a nine point game. And that was kind of a theme in many of the lopsided games. It was one team that was running the ball down the other’s throat and the other airing it out like crazy, typically resulting in a big difference in rush attempts, rush yards, pass attempts, and pass yards (and interceptions, frequently). The most lopsided games are simply the ones with two massively different play styles.

That Broncos-Jets game? The Broncos ran the ball 45 times for 124 yards compared to the Jets’ 11 rushes for 40 yards. The Jets, instead, threw the ball 62 times for 305 yards (and 5 interceptions!) compared to the Broncos’ 16 pass attempts for 59 yards. Not to mention the Broncos getting penalized for 121 yards while the Jets only had 20.

Except that Patriots drubbing of the Titans. Both teams managed to put up exactly 193 rush yards! And very similar rush attempts, sacks, penalties, and penalty yardage. But the passing-related differentials were so insane that they could make up for all that. The Patriots had 36 more completions, 31 more attempts, 439 more yards, and 6 more touchdowns. Along with 2 fewer interceptions, 5 fewer fumbles, and 3 fewer fumbles lost. Absolutely insane that a game could have both teams with the exact same amount of rushing yards and still end up second-most lopsided.

P.S. - If you want to see the stats from that 2024 Bengals-Panthers game, here they are:

Stat Bengals Panthers
First Downs 24 24
Rushing 31 for 141 and 2 TD 29 for 155 and 1 TD
Passing 22-31 for 232 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT 25-41 for 220 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Sacks 0 sacks for 0 yards lost 0 sacks for 0 yards lost
Fumbles lost 0 of 0 fumbles lost 0 of 0 fumbles
Penalties 5 for 39 yards 6 for 37 yards