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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/hopefeedsthespirit on 2023-09-05 23:37:26.

Let me preface this by saying that I am on the side of players being paid. Nick Bosa is one of the best edge rushers in the league and he should be paid like it. So I am NOT arguing against him getting his pay day. The cap is increasing, timing is good coming off of a DPOY. My question/issue is more about the market, his value and the alleged record contract that he is seeking.

According to reports, Nick is assumed to be asking for a contract worth between $150 - $170 million with $110 million guaranteed There are a ton of fans saying “Just pay him!” “He’s the best non-QB in the league”.

If he gets it, great for him. But from a value standpoint, a contract of that size is $38 - $58 million higher than TJ (the currently highest paid edge player). That’s a BIG difference. Additionally, If we extrapolate Donald’s contract out to 4 years (31.6 per year x 4 = 126.4) we are talking between $23.6 - $43.6 million more than Donald who currently has the highest annual salary for a defender.

For reference:

TJ’s contract - 4 yr $112,011,000; $28M/yr GTD at sign - $80,000,000

Donald’s contract - 3 yr $95,000,000; $31.6/year GTD at sign - $46,500,00

If the reports are true and this is what Nick is demanding, what is he and his agent using to assess his value? Even if your personal preference is that you think that he is better than TJ and/or Donald, the NFL works based on markets. What measures are being used to show him being THAT MUCH better than his peers to warrant such a significant salary increase at that position? I’m not seeing the justification based on production alone. (See stats below)

Note: All sources are included at the bottom of the post.

*Nick was injured for most of the 2020 season. I’m not counting that season against him.

*Donald’s career high in sacks is 20.5. However, he was statistically more dominant in 2021 in most other categories outside of the sack numbers so his highest sack total for 1 season is not reflected in this chart.

Since Nick has been in the league the least amount of time, I have tried to be fair by comparing only their first 4 seasons in the league.

Nick was injured and played only 2 games. We can give him a mulligan on this.

ESPN Pass Rush Metrics Using NFL Next Gen Stats Data Plot @ Seth Walder

Credit: Seth Walder, X.com Double Team Rates at Edge 2022

Both Aaron Donald and TJ were hurt and missed 6+ games in 2022. So, I don’t think the 2022 graph is the best one to use. All three men were healthy in 2021so that is the a much more accurate representation. From the 2021 graph below , Aaron Donald is far and away the best in terms of Double Team x Win Rate. I think Donald is still the best defender in the league overall with his work in the trenches but focusing just on this measure, Donald wins this category hands down.

Credit: Seth Walder, X.comDouble Team Rates at All Positions 2021

Comparing just the two edge rushers, I’ve heard it used recently as a way to undercut TJ’s pass rushing abilities. I think that is an unfair analysis. The problem with using the double teams metric against TJ is that teams literally CAN’T double team him. How can they? The Pittsburgh Dline is very good. Other players on that defense generate significant pressure themselves especially on the dline. The opponent simply cannot double team since there would always be another player who can beat you either on the inside or the other edge. This simply does not appear to be the case with the 9ers.

* TJ Watt Stats

Outside of Bosa, there are no 49er defenders putting up double digit sack numbers. Armstead is the only other player that has shown some consistency as a pass rusher. In 3 out of the 4 years, he is one of the top three sack leaders on the 9ers team. While he has sufficient production, he’s not really striking fear with numbers like these. So, why would any team commit more resources to double him on a consistent basis? Thus, outside of Bosa, (and prior to the Hargrave signing) there wasn’t another player on that Dline that commanded any additional attention. It wasn’t necessary. So all double teams were aimed at stopping Nick coming off the edge. That is not the case for the Steelers. Outside of Watt, multiple other players put up double digit sack numbers.

SOURCES:

ESPN player stats - TJ Watt Aaron Donald Nick Bosa;

ESPN pass rush/run-stop win rates - 2019 2020 2021 2022

Double Team rates - Double Team Rates at Edge 2022 Double Team Rates at All Positions 2021

ESPN Team sacks Steelers 2019,2020, 2021, 2022 ; 49ers 2019 2020 2021 2022

PFF Defensive Line Rankings - 2022 2021