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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/Brix001 on 2025-05-22 13:35:39+00:00.
In baseball, WAR (wins above replacement) is a statistic used to evaluate how many wins a player contributed compared to a replacement-level player. I decided to make a WAR metric for quarterbacks, and as a baseline, I chose Josh Johnson to be my “replacement-level” quarterback, since he is a career backup/practice-squad-level player. Without further ado, here’s the formula:
QB WAR = (AY/A -5.1)/15 * Att./28
Where:
- AY/A = adjusted yards per attempt
- 5.1 = Josh Johnson’s average AY/A
- Att. = Total pass attempts
- 15 = Yards per point estimate (league average in 2024, converts yards to points)
- 28 = Points per win estimate (converts points to wins)
This formula works because AY/A not only accounts for yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, but it correlates strongly with EPA/play, especially over a full season. In addition, AY/A is easier to calculate or find on statistics websites.