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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/SoKrat3s on 2025-05-18 17:30:00+00:00.
The other day I posted a copy of Spotrac’s AAV% of Cap at re-sign. This is one of the better models for evaluating how much cap a contract takes up. However the biggest criticism is probably that it starts counting the cap% from the year it’s agreed to, not when it takes effect. Sometimes the new contract starts 1 year after signing, sometimes 2 (this is where T.Law & J.Love’s deals differ). To work around that I have re-calculated the numbers from the year the veteran extension starts.
- Josh Allen’s situation is unique, adding two years (2029 & 2030) onto his previous extension. Since it’s better to show his value over the long term I counted it for all six years starting in 2025.
- This isn’t a perfect setup, as it requires projection for the 2026-2030 salary caps. I used a 7.5% rate for the increase of the cap. Again, it’s imperfect - but if you want an absolutely perfect future projection, well, that doesn’t exist.
| Year | Cap | – | Year | Cap | – | Year | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $198.2M | – | 2024 | $255.4M | – | 2028 | $346.9M |
| 2021 | $182.5M | – | 2025 | $279.2M | – | 2029 | $372.9M |
| 2022 | $208.2M | – | 2026 | $300.1M | – | 2030 | $400.8M |
| 2023 | $224.8M | – | 2027 | $322.7M | – | 2031 | $430.9M |
- I also included the current rookie contracts for comparison. However, I only counted them as 4-year deals - as their 5th year option number is TBD. When you factor in the 5th year they will end up making a slightly higher cap% than the number here, but you get the general idea.
Estimated Cap% during length of contract
| Rank | Player | Total $ | Years | Seasons | Cap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dak Prescott | $240.00M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 19.22% |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | $260.00M | 5 | 2023-2027 | 18.81% |
| 3 | DeShaun Watson | $230.00M | 5 | 2022-2026 | 18.14% |
| 4 | Jordan Love | $220.00M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 17.62% |
| 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | $212.40M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 17.01% |
| 6 | Jared Goff | $212.00M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 16.98% |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | $275.00M | 5 | 2025-2029 | 16.96% |
| 8 | Jalen Hurts | $255.00M | 5 | 2024-2028 | 16.95% |
| 9 | Josh Allen | $330.00M | 6 | 2025-2030 | 16.32% |
| 10 | Justin Herbert | $262.50M | 5 | 2025-2029 | 16.19% |
| 11 | Trevor Lawrence | $275.00M | 5 | 2026-2030 | 15.77% |
| 12 | Kirk Cousins | $180.00M | 4 | 2024-2027 | 15.55% |
| 13 | Kyler Murray | $230.50M | 5 | 2024-2028 | 15.32% |
| 14 | Brock Purdy | $265.00M | 5 | 2026-2030 | 15.20% |
| 15 | Matthew Stafford | $84.00M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 14.50% |
| 16 | Patrick Mahomes | $450.00M | 10 | 2022-2031 | 14.32% |
| 17 | Derek Carr | $150.00M | 4 | 2023-2026 | 14.16% |
| 18 | Geno Smith | $75.00M | 2 | 2026-2027 | 12.04% |
| 19 | Baker Mayfield | $100.00M | 3 | 2024-2026 | 11.98% |
| 20 | Sam Darnold | $100.50M | 3 | 2025-2027 | 11.14% |
| 21 | Justin Fields | $40.00M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 6.90% |
| 22 | Daniel Jones | $14.00M | 1 | 2025 | 5.01% |
| 23 | Cam Ward*R | $48.84M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 3.91% |
| 24 | Russell Wilson | $10.50M | 1 | 2025 | 3.76% |
| 25 | Bryce YoungR | $37.96M | 4 | 2023-2026 | 3.58% |
| 26 | CJ StroudR | $36.28M | 4 | 2023-2026 | 3.42% |
| 27 | Caleb WilliamsR | $39.49M | 4 | 2024-2027 | 3.41% |
| 28 | Jayden DanielsR | $37.75M | 4 | 2024-2027 | 3.26% |
| 29 | Anthony RichardsonR | $33.99M | 4 | 2023-2026 | 3.21% |
| 30 | Drake MayeR | $36.64M | 4 | 2024-2027 | 3.17% |
| 31 | Marcus Mariota | $8.00M | 1 | 2025 | 2.87% |
| 32 | Tyrod Taylor | $12.00M | 2 | 2024-2025 | 2.24% |
| 33 | Jacoby Brissett | $12.50M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 2.16% |
| 34 | Zach Wilson | $6.00M | 1 | 2025 | 2.15% |
| 35 | Jarrett Stidham | $12.00M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 2.07% |
| 36 | Michael PennixR | $22.88M | 4 | 2024-2027 | 1.98% |
| 37 | JJ.McCarthyR | $21.85M | 4 | 2024-2027 | 1.89% |
| 38 | Davis Mills | $5.00M | 1 | 2025 | 1.79% |
| 39 | Bo NixR | $18.61M | 4 | 2024-2027 | 1.61% |
| 40 | Joe Flacco | $4.25M | 1 | 2025 | 1.52% |
| 41 | Kenny PickettR | $14.07M | 4 | 2022-2025 | 1.45% |
| 42 | Mac Jones | $8.41M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 1.45% |
| 43 | Andy Dalton | $8.00M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 1.38% |
| 44 | Jameis Winston | $8.00M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 1.38% |
| 45 | Joshua Dobbs | $8.00M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 1.38% |
| 46 | Jaxson Dart*R | $16.98M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 1.36% |
| 47 | Mason Rudolph | $7.50M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 1.29% |
| 48 | Jimmy Garoppolo | $3.01M | 1 | 2025 | 1.08% |
| 49 | Cooper Rush | $6.20M | 2 | 2025-2026 | 1.07% |
| 50 | Kyle Trask | $2.79M | 1 | 2025 | 1.00% |
| – | Tyler Shough*R | $10.80M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 0.87% |
| – | Jalen MilroeR | $6.26M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 0.50% |
| – | Dillon Gabriel*R | $6.23M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 0.50% |
| – | Shedeur Sanders*R | $4.65M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 0.37% |
| – | Kyle McCordR | $4.46M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 0.36% |
| – | Will HowardR | $4.45M | 4 | 2025-2028 | 0.36% |
*OTC projections
I think one of the biggest observations is how much the length impacts the value of the cap%. Normally we see Joe Burrow at the top of contract numbers, but that being a 5 year deal gives it an edge over several of the 4 year deals. In this case Burrow’s 5 year deal falls behind Tua’s 4 year deal in terms of team impact. Predictably Mahomes stands out as an incredible value on a 10 year deal.