This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Kimber80 on 2023-09-04 18:28:00.
Well with apologies to Duke and Clemson, we have a full week of Week One games in the bag, so I thought it was time to do this. See the rules below, but basically to qualify a team has to have held a lead with at least a 90% win probability in the fourth quarter or OT, as assessed by ESPN’s Game Tracker “Win Probability Factor”. said team then blows the lead and ends up losing the game. Games must involve an FBS team, and priority is given to P5 teams that blow leads over G5 teams if the %s are close and ditto for favorites who blow leads over underdogs who do so. This edition includes games played from August 31 to September 3. As always, corrections are welcome. I do my best.
This Week’s Winner … Army Black Knights
Army … 97.3% chance to beat Louisiana-Monroe
The Situation: With just 5:54 left in the game, Army leads ULM 13-3, and ULM has the ball first and 10 at their own 38 yard line.
What Happened Next: On the very next play, a ULM running back scampers 62 yards for a TD, cutting the Army lead to 13-10. Then, with 4:48 to go and facing third and 10 at their own 25 yard line, Army comes up big with a 20 yard completion out to their own 45 - but the receiver fumbles the ball away while being tackled. ULM takes over at the Army 45, and marches down the field for a go-ahead TD with 2:48 to go. Trailing 17-13, Army has plenty of time left to rally, but on their second play of this possession the Black Knights toss another INT, giving ULM the ball in Army territory and effectively ending the game.
Well done Army!
Honorable Mention … Nebraska Cornhuskers!
Nebraska … 94% chance to beat Minnesota
The Situation. With just 5:03 left in regulation and nursing a 10-3 lead, Nebraska completes a six-yard pass on 3rd and 4 to gain a vital first down at their own 44 yard line.
What Happened Next. On the very next play, a Nebraska RB scampers for a 9-yard gain, but fumbles the ball away. Minnesota, given new life, takes over at their own 47 yard line. After a tortuous 10-play drive that included two fourth down conversions, including a game-tying TD pass on fourth and 10 with 2:32 to go, Nebraska receives the kickoff and begins marching down the field towards a winning FG try. However, with 58 seconds left, a Huskers pass is intercepted by the Gophers, who take over around midfield. Six players later, Minnesota is at the UNL 29 yard line, and their kicker converts the 47 yarder at the buzzer for the 13-10 victory.
Congratulations to Nebraska!
Criteria: According to ESPN’s “Win Probability Factor”, biggest blown 4th quarter or OT leads in terms of % chance to win in a game involving an FBS team, must reach 90% threshold in 4th quarter to qualify for award. Winning Percentage is the peak win probability at any time in the final quarter. If % is very close, priority is given to favorites that blow leads over underdogs that blow leads .
Note that I also exclude games where the “win probability factor” seems messed up. For example, in week one I omitted Bryant vs FIU because the game play by play near the end of the game contained what appeared to be errors. Also, the WPF seemed messed up near the very end of the week one VT-ODU game, but not earlier so I counted the earlier value. Finally, I do not necessarily give awards for every blown lead that meets the criteria. Generally, I cap it at three games.