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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/Pan_no_Kami on 2025-05-11 16:49:27+00:00.
Hello, and Happy Mother’s Day! Welcome to the final entry in my Margin of Victory (MoV) series. I’ll be looking at The Best Teams by MoV to NOT make the Super Bowl (post NFL-AFL Merger). Like my previous list (Worst Teams by MoV to make the Super Bowl), I thought it’d be more interesting to do it this way than to do “Best Teams to lose the Super Bowl”. The reason that there are 9 teams instead of 10 is because there were a bunch of teams with an MoV of at least 12, while there were exactly 9 teams with an MoV of 13 or higher who did not make the Super Bowl post-Merger. This also aligned with my other two “Best Teams” lists, which also had 9 teams.
Like the previous entries, I"ll be listing the team, along with their MoV and record in parentheses [Example: 2018 Saints (9.4) (13-3)]. I will also be providing potential insight on what made the team so good in the regular season, how the playoffs panned out, and whether the team not making the Super Bowl was truly an upset or not. I will also be putting the team’s final game’s score for the season.
As a reminder: THE TEAMS ON THIS LIST AND WHERE THEY PLACE ON THIS LIST IS BASED ON STATS, NOT MY OPINION. While the commentary and honorable mentions are my own, this list is based on a static number.
And now, here are the 9 Best Teams by MoV to make the Super Bowl, ranked by MoV post-merger, from “worst” to best:
9b. 2024 Detroit Lions (13.1) (15-2) - This team tied with another on this list, but I’m placing the Lions from last year higher because they didn’t win a playoff game, while the next team did. The Lions came off a season in which they made the NFC Championship despite a pretty poor scoring defense, and came agonizingly close to their first Super Bowl appearance. Expectations were sky high coming into 2024, and during the regular season, the Lions didn’t disappoint. They had the #1 scoring offense in the league, featuring Pro-Bowlers Jared Goff, who finished with an incomprehensible 72.4% completion percentage to go along with over 4600 yards, Jahmyr Gibbs, who ran for over 1400 yards, and First Team All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jameson Williams, David Montgomery, and Sam LaPorta were also important offensive pieces, while Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker also made the Pro Bowl as O-linemen. Meanwhile, the scoring defense jumped all the way to 7th, as Terrion Arnold and Brian Branch made the Pro Bowl, and Kerby Joseph was the First-Team All Pro Free Safety. Jack Campbell also pitched in 131 tackles. However, it had two crucial weaknesses. 1. Only 4 players started on Defense all 17 games. This team had an unfathomable number of defensive injuries. Many players were lost by the end of the season. And 2. Perhaps due to the injuries, they allowed the 3rd most passing yards in the league. They did a stellar job at bending but not breaking, but such a strategy is generally not sustainable in the long-term. Despite this, though, the team was dominant. Their 2 losses were both to playoff teams, and by a combined 10 points. They defeated playoff teams a total of 7 times, including twice against Green Bay and twice against Minnesota. They won by more than 2 possessions on 6 different occasions, including a 31-9 win against the 14-3 finishing Vikings in Week 18. Some of their wins against lesser teams were close, though, and down the stretch, the defensive injuries were clearly taking a toll, as their scoring defense the last 6 weeks of the year was markedly worse than the previous weeks.
Despite the late-season issues, it was still expected for the Lions to defeat the upstart Commanders, led by a rookie QB, in the Divisional Round, especially considering the Commanders poor scoring defense. But it was Detroit’s defense that was torn to shreds by that rookie, Jayden Daniels. They were simply unable to stop Washington’s offense. Detroit’s offense scored at about their season average, but it wasn’t enough. The Lions were having great success running the ball, but perhaps due to time constraints, only ran the ball 23 times. And like that, the Lions’ phenomenal season was finished. Considering that the team has lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators, large question marks remain, but the talent is still there. As is Dan Campbell. Would this team have made the Super Bowl with just an average amount of injuries? I’d say they had a fair shot. The Eagles were also excellent that year, both by record and MoV. I think it could’ve gone either way.
Final Result: Lost Divisional Round (31-45) vs. Washington Commanders
9a. 2011 New Orleans Saints (13.1) (13-3) - After winning the Super Bowl in 2009, the Saints scoring defense actually improved in 2010, but the offense also regressed dramatically. This resulted in a disappointing finish in 2010, so in 2011, they were out for revenge. While the defense regressed back to middling, the offense returned to form. Notably, Drew Brees shattered the then-record for passing yards in a season with 5476 on an equally absurd 71.2% completion percentage and 46 TDs to 14 INTs. The only person who prevented him from winning the MVP was Aaron Rodgers, who threw fewer yards and had a lower completion percentage, but threw 45 TDs to only 6 INTs, and his team finished with the best record in the league. Jimmy Graham burst on to the scene as an elite receiving Tight End, getting nearly 100 catches, 1300 yards, and 11 TDs. Marques Colston remained a solid #1 option with over 1100 yards, while Brees’ usual crew of other targets (Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson) all contributed as well. They also ranked top 10 in rushing yards, thanks to the quartet of Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Chris Ivory, and Darren Sproles, the last of which was also a significant threat in the receiving game. They had no Pro-Bowlers on the defensive side of the ball, though Roman Harper was a big tackling threat at safety (unfortunately, he led the team in sacks with 7.5). They ranked 13th in scoring defense, but finishing 30th in yards allowed was a worrying sign. They lost 3 games by a combined 24 points, and like the previous entry, they won 6 games by more than 2 possessions, though this was bloated a bit by a 62-7 embarrassing of the 2-14 Peyton Manning-less Colts. But considering 3 of those 6 blowouts were in the final 6 games, and that the Saints finished on an 8-game win-streak, optimism was high.
Despite a 13-3 record, the 49ers held a tiebreaker, while the Packers finished 15-1, so the Saints had to play a Wild Card game. Statistically, the Saints were a better version of the Lions (their opponent), and that showed in a 45-28 win at home. They then had to travel to San Francisco to face the newly elite 49ers. The Saints quickly fell behind 0-14, but fought back all game, until they finally took the lead on a long catch-and-run by Sproles with a bit over 4 minutes left. What followed was one of the greatest finishes in playoff history. 49ers QB Alex Smith led a quick drive, ending with a long bootleg TD run with less than 2:15 remaining. But they failed the 2 point-conversion, and around 35 seconds later, Graham caught a pass in traffic and outran the 49ers defense. The Saints also earned the 2-point conversion, resulting in a 3-point lead. But that high yard-allowing defense reared its ugly head, as Smith was able to once again march the 49ers down the field, ending with a heavily-contested TD catch by Vernon Davis with 9 seconds left to give San Francisco the lead for good. The Saints would spend the remainder of Drew Brees’ career alternating between mediocrity and contending, but failed to return to the Super Bowl due to further heartbreaking moments. For 2011, as mentioned previously, the top of the NFC was brutal that year, though it was the 9-7 4th seed who ended up as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. Considering how similar the Saints were to the Packers in terms of MoV, having a horrendous defense in terms of yards, and having an MVP-level QB, it’s not unlikely that they would’ve suffered the same fate as said Packers against the Giants in a theoretical NFC Championship game, even if they did win the Divisional Round game.
Final Result: Lost Divisional Round (36-32) @ San Francisco 49ers
7a. 1970 Minnesota Vikings (13.7) (12-2) - There was another tie, so I put the team with the worse winning percentage first. A year after making the Super Bowl with one of the greatest defenses of all time, the Vikings returned in 1970 looking quite strong. The Vikings moved on from MVP candidate Joe Kapp to Gary Cuozzo, a statistical downgrade. The rushing attack also took a step back, but the Vikings still finished 3rd in scoring. Gene Washington was selected as a Pro Bowl wide receiver once again. But the heart of the team remained in the defense, which once again finished top of the league in points allowed. The Hall of Fame defensive line duo of Carl Eller and Alan Page once again terrorized opposing QBs on their way to First Team All-Pro. Gary Larsen and Karl Kassulke also made the Pro Bowl while Jim Marshall and Paul Krause remained great in their own rights. As is a trend with this list so far, the Vikings won 6 games by over 2 possessions, including demolishing the eventual NFC Champion Cowboys by 41 points!. Their 2 losses were by a combined 13 points, though both were to bad teams. They also defeated 10-4 Detroit twice.
The team seemed destined for a return trip to the Super bowl…
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