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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/Pan_no_Kami on 2025-05-04 17:48:59+00:00.

Hello, and welcome to the penultimate entry in my Margin of Victory (MoV) series. For this round, I’ll be looking at The Worst Teams by MoV to make the Super Bowl (post NFL-AFL Merger). I could’ve done Worst Super Bowl Winners, but I feel that this is a more interesting list.

If you’ve read previous entries from this series, you’ll already know that regular season MoV is not a be-all, end-all of predicting postseason success. This list is no exception. It has an even mix of losers and winners. As usual, I’ll be listing the team, along with their MoV and record in parentheses [Example: 1994 San Diego Chargers (4.7) (11-5)]. I will also be providing potential insight on why the season went the way it did, and what led to said team at least making it to the Big Game in spite of a less than optimal regular season, as well as the final score of the Super Bowl.

As a reminder: THE TEAMS ON THIS LIST AND WHERE THEY PLACE ON THIS LIST IS BASED ON STATS, NOT MY OPINION. While the commentary and honorable mentions are my own, this list is based on a static number.

Without further delay, here is the 10 Worst Teams by MoV to make the Super Bowl, ranked by MoV post-merger, from “best” to worst:

10: 2015 Denver Broncos (3.7) (12-4) - Starting off with a somewhat recent example, this Broncos squad was 2 years removed from a historically dominant offense, which fell flat in the Super Bowl, alongside a mediocre defense. Now, things had flipped on its head. Peyton Manning was a shell of himself, either injured or playing below even average QB standards. Brock Osweiler ended up starting 7 games at QB, and was fairly decent in them. The offense was 19th in scoring, but was slightly better in yards gained. The team did have a Pro-Bowl WR in Demaryius Thomas (RIP), as well as a solid #2 in Emmanuel Sanders, plus an older Owen Daniels as a safety blanket. But they were not enough to will the offense to greater heights due to Manning. Ultimately, what granted this team so much power was its defense, featuring the No-Fly Zone, which was #1 in passing yards allowed. T.J. Ward, Aqib Talib, and Chris Harris were all Pro Bowlers in the secondary, while the terrifying edge rush duo of Demarcus Ware and Von Miller gave QBs nightmares. Brandon Marshall (the linebacker), Danny Trevathan, and Darian Stewart were also solid contributors in a defense that also finished 3rd in rushing yards allowed. Based on these stats, I believe them being only 4th in scoring defense is deceptive, as they were likely set up with poor field position on defense due to the offense’s ineptitude. Ultimately, this all resulted in many close games, with only one game in which the Broncos won by more than 2 possessions, and none the other way. They did defeat the Patriots in the regular season, who were 10-0 at the time (and this gave the Broncos the tiebreaker for the #1 seed), but they also had a couple of losses to mediocre teams (8-8 Colts and 7-9 Raiders).

Peyton Manning, despite the injuries, started all 3 postseason games for the Broncos, and was…still not great. He was sacked 9 times and had a 55% completion percentage, but he at least only threw 1 INT. They first defeated a solid Steelers team in the Divisional Round, then barely escaped a last-second collapse against the Patriots. Finally in the Super Bowl against the favored Panthers, the defense really clamped down. Denver forced 4 turnovers and sacked the league’s MVP Cam Newton 7 times. The game was still in the balance in the 4th quarter, though, due to Denver’s continued offensive ineptitude. However, Miller forced a crucial fumble on a strip sack, and the Broncos iced the game with a C.J. Anderson rushing TD. Overall, the team played around what their regular season averages were during the postseason, except in the Super Bowl, in which the defense excelled. If I had to say, I’d say this team did enough to win games. It wasn’t pretty, but it worked. I also do think the defense should genuinely be put in Top 10 defensive units of all time conversations. I believe they performed even better than what the stats indicate. The players and Wade Phillips deserve a ton of credit.

Final Result: Won Super Bowl (24-10) vs. Carolina Panthers

9: 1980 Oakland Raiders (3.7) (11-5) - 4 years after achieving glory with Ken Stabler and John Madden following years of close misses, both were gone. In their place was Tom Flores, an unproven and much less expressive head coach, and Dan Pastorini, the former Oilers QB who’d had some playoff success. Following 2 9-7 seasons in a row, expectations weren’t high for Oakland. And things went as expected when the Raiders started 2-3. In Game 6, though, the Raiders made a QB change. In came Jim Plunket, a former #1 pick who’d long been labeled a bust. And while he wasn’t incredible, his stats were better than Pastorini’s, and his starting presence seemed to cause a shift in the team. Notably, after numerous poor defensive showings in the first 7 weeks, they’d go the rest of the year only allowing over 21 points one time. From that point onwards, the team only lost 2 more games, both to arguably the best teams in the NFC. In general, these Raiders only lost to elite teams. The Chiefs were the only team they lost to with under 11 wins. However, they also only blew out 2 terrible teams in the regular season (the 4-12 Giants and Seahawks). Almost all of their games were within 2 scores. The defense was held up by First-Team All Pros Lester Hayes and Ted Hendricks, plus solid contributors John Matuszak and Matt Millen. The offense had two Pro-Bowlers themselves, though both selections made little sense to me (Kenny King, who had under 1000 yards from scrimmage as a RB, and Dave Casper, who only played 6 games).

Despite getting hot down the stretch though, they did lose the division to the Chargers on a tiebreaker. They kicked things off by blowing out the Oilers in the Wild Card Round. They had to follow this up by travelling to frozen Cleveland, and the low scoring reflected this. However, on this day, the football gods would smile on the Raiders, as with under a minute left, down 12-14, the Browns had 2nd down at the Raiders’ 13-yard line. Normally, one would run out the clock and have their kicker ice the game. The issue was, the Browns kicker had already missed 3 total kicks that day, and was playing injured. Wanting to leave that as a last resort, the Browns pushed for a TD. However, league MVP Brian Sipe threw a pass that was intercepted in the end zone, and the Raiders survived. The play, now known as “Red Right 88”, kicked off decades of suffering through insane/unlucky events for Browns fans.

In the AFC Championship, the Raiders travelled to sunny San Diego for an all AFC-West bout. There, the Raiders exploded for 21 in the 1st quarter, and hung on the rest of the way to win 34-27 against the Chargers to advance to the Super Bowl. In the finale, Oakland’s opponent was the Eagles, who’d they’d lost to in a defensive battle earlier that season (7-10). Philadelphia, by all metrics, were a very strong team, and they’d made short work of the NFC to reach the Super Bowl. But on this day, the team that forced the most turnovers in the NFL continued its reign of terror, as the Raiders won the turnover battle 4-0. This largely made the difference in a game where the discrepancy in other non-scoring areas (yards, penalty yards, sacks) was negligible. Overall, the Raiders played beyond their regular season averages in the playoffs, though they did noticeably improve in the 2nd half of the season. The slow start along with their difficult Strength of Schedule hide the fact that this team was actually quite good. Nothing incredible historically, but far from mediocre. The general core of this team (plus Marcus Allen and Howie Long) would lead the Raiders to a more dominant Super Bowl run 3 years later.

Final Result: Won Super Bowl (27-10) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

8: 2012 Baltimore Ravens (3.4) (10-6) - The 2011 team was arguably stronger, but unfortunate circumstances in New England kept them from a Super Bowl appearance . Perhaps in response to their kicker missing a game-tying FG in that game, the Ravens drafted Justin Tucker, who was phenomenally accurate, even in his rookie year. On the other side of Special Teams, Jacoby Jones was a First-Team All-Pro return man. Joe Flacco was average at QB in the regular season, and no receivers had a 1,000 yard season. The offense was largely through Pro-Bowler Ray Rice, who rolled up over 1100 yards rushing and over 1600 yards from scrimmage overall. He ran behind Vonta Leach, First-Team All-Pro Fullback, while Dennis Pitta, Anquan Boldin, and Torrey Smith were solid receiving targets. Defensively, the team stepped back compared to the previous year, but still had strong players in two of the greatest players of all-time at their respective positions, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Bernard Pollard and Haloti Ngata were also Pro-Bowlers, accompanied by solid contributors Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger. The Team played up to its potential at the start of the season, going 9-2. However, they soon fired their offensive coordinator, and lost 4 of their last 5 (though they sat starters in the final week of the season, as they’d already clinched a tiebreaker against Cincinnati for the division). They did have 2 wins against opponents who made the playoffs, but both came near the beginning of the season, tho…

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