This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/soccer by /u/AnnieIWillKnow on 2023-08-31 09:03:35.
The /r/soccer Predictions Survey 2023/24 - the results!
Following on from the (mild) success of the first /r/soccer Predictions Survey, this year we again consulted the good people of this subreddit, in an attempt to quantify the famous /r/soccer consensus on the key events and storylines of the season. Next summer, we will be able to return to the results of the survey - and realise how wrong we individually and collectively all were. With the major European domestic leagues now under way, I am pleased to present the results - pie charts and all. These results will be reposted at the end of the season! (The winners of the special “wildcard” predictions will be announced at the end of the season).
The results
There were a total of 784 participants - which although only a small minority of the /r/soccer userbase, is a good enough sample size to draw some conclusions from.
| Part 1 - the biggest prizes |
|---|
Who will win Euro 2024?
/r/soccer is backing England to bring football home this summer - just about. The Three Lions earned 37.8% of the vote, with France a close second with 36.8% - and Spain a distant third with 5.5.%.
Who will win the 2024 Copa America?
Despite being current holders of the World Cup, /r/soccer is (marginally) backing Brazil over Argentina - with Messi and co being selected by 42.9%, whilst Brazil were the pick of 46.1%. Uruguay came in third, with 3.9% of the vote.
Who will win the UEFA Champions League?
Man City are /r/soccer’s favourites to win the Champions League, and repeat last season’s feat. 33.9% picked Guardiola’s side, and remarkably, 19.9% each selected Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Barcelona came in fourth with 9.5%, and then Arenal were the fifth most-selected team, with 4.4% of the vote.
Who will win the 2023 Copa Libertadores?
Four teams split the vote pretty evenly, with 25.1% backing Atletico Nacional, 20.6% Flamengo, 20.2% Palmeiras, and 19.3% Boca. This shows how much /r/soccer pays attention to South American football, as Nacional and Flamengo have already since been knocked out…
Who will win the 2023 Men’s Ballon d’Or?
A pretty clear top 3 - although the real voting will probably have an ever clearer winner than /r/soccer, who are backing Messi to win it, with Haaland and Mbappe trialling in his wake.
Who will win the 2023 Women’s Ballon d’Or?
/r/soccer’s insight into women’s football has traditionally been… mixed. We have likely called this one wrong, as following Spain’s World Cup win, Bonmati has propelled herself into being the favourite for the award. 13.7% of /r/soccer favoured the midfield maestro over her Barcelona team mate Caroline Graham Hansen with 13% - but over half with 55.8% backed Sam Kerr to be the winner.
| Part 2 - the Major European domestic leagues |
|---|
In the interest of brevity, only the prediction for the title title winners, Champions League qualifiers, relegated teams, and Golden Boot winners for the top four European leagues were surveyed - and then the winners of a selection of others. (Apologies in advance for the Western hemisphere bias…)
n.b. for the top 4 and relegated team predictions, the percentages given indicted the proportion of respondents who picked them, as a “yes/no” binary, e.g. "50% of voters thought Everton would be relegated"
The English Premier League
A clear favourite here - although 63.7% of the vote seems a tad low, given Man City’s dominance of English football. 15.6% instead predicted Arsenal, 8.1% went for Liverpool, and 6.4% went for Man United.
The top 4
The vote was similar for the top 4, with the four teams receiving the most votes being:
- Man City (97.4%)
- Arsenal (87.2%)
- Liverpool (75.3%)
- Man United (70.1%)
The fifth most popular pick was Chelsea with 24.3% thinking they’d bounce straight back from their annus horribis - a percentage drop off which suggests /r/soccer is quite clear on their top 4. Chelsea received just 7 more votes than Newcastle (23.4%) - but both were some way ahead of Spurs and Aston Villa with 9.4% and 5% of the vote respectively. The only team not to receive a single vote were Burnley.
The relegated teams
Luton were by far the most popular pick, with over double the votes of the next team, Bournemouth.
- Luton (81.3%)
- Bournemouth (56.9%)
- Sheffield United (31.1%) completed the trio - but this last pick was very tightly contested, with Wolves being voted for by 30.8%, and Forest 30.2%
The Golden Boot winner
87.4% backed Haaland to retain his Golden Boot, in a pretty safe bet. The next most popular picks were the since-departed Harry Kane (RIP), and Mo Salah - with just one vote splitting the two (for 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively).
La Liga
52.5% voted for Barcelona, 38.9% Real Madrid, and 8.9% Atletico - with no other team receiving more than 2 votes (which was Getafe, interestingly).
The top 4
Accordingly, the following top 4 were chosen by the popular vote:
- Barcelona (92.1%)
- Real Madrid (90.9%)
- Atletico Madrid (89.1%)
- Real Sociedad (30.9%)
Notably, there was a big drop off between the big 3, and Real Sociedad - an almost 60 percentage point difference. %. Sevilla (26.2%), Villareal (15.6%) and Real Betis (13.8%) were the next most popular picks.
The relegated teams
Meanwhile, the following three were doomed to the drop by /r/soccer:
- Alaves (54%)
- Cadiz (48.6%)
- Almeria (47%)
They were closely followed by Las Palmas (45.2%), before a big drop off to Granada with 110 votes, or 17.6%.
The Pichichi (Golden Boot) winner
59.3% voted for Robert Lewandowski to finish as La Liga top scorer, with 17.2% opting for Vinicius. The Brazilian just beat out the third choice with 13.5% - a player who isn’t even playing in Spain, Kylian Mbappe.
The fourth most popular pick was the man Real Madrid signed instead, with 2% of the vote - Joselu.
The German Bundesliga
No surprises here. 84.3% backed Bayern Munich to win a twelfth consecutive Bundesliga title, with Dortmund receiving 11.9% of the vote share. That left just 3.8% of voters opting for other champions, with Leipzig the next pick with 1.8% of the vote.
The top 4
The following top 4 were decided, by the popular vote:
- Bayern Munich (634 of 639, 99.2%)
- Borussia Dortmund 626 (98%)
- RB Leipzig 534 (83.6%)
- Bayer Leverkusen 362 (56.7%)
Union Berlin placed fifth, with 136 votes (21.3%).
The relegated teams
This is slightly erroneous, in that one of the the three relegated teams is decided via a play off with the 2. Bundesliga. Nonetheless, the three teams felt most likely to be relegated were:
- Heidenheim (82.5%)
- Darmstadt (75.9%)
- VfL Bochum (59.8%)
Followed by Augbserg (23.2%), and Stuttgart (14.3%).
The Golden Boot winner
The winner of /r/soccer’s prediction for Bundesliga top scorer hadn’t even arrived in Germany at the time of voting - but 47.7% backed Harry Kane anyway. The voting here was much more split than in England and Spain, but Haller (8.2%), Kolo Muani (7.6%), Fullkrug (4%)and Musiala (3.4%) still lagged well behind Bayern’s new number 9.
Italian Serie A
Serie A has been the most unpredictable of the top European leagues for several years now, and this is reflected in the voting. Inter were the favourites (32.6%), ahead of Milan (23.1%) and Juventus (19.8%) - and surprisingly, just 16.4% thought Napoli would retain their title.
The top 4
Interestingly, although /r/soccer voted Napoli as fourth favourites to win Serie A, they felt much more favourably about their chances of top 4, with the following results:
- Inter (93.2%)
- Napoli (84%)
- Juventus (80.5%)
- Milan (78.2%)
There was then a clear drop off, with Roma and Lazio voted as the next two most likely teams with 27.6% and 20.4% of the vote respectively.
The relegated teams
The race to the bottom appears just as hotly-contested as the race to the top in Italy. The following three teams were voted as most likely to go down:
- Frosinone (63.6%)
- Lecce (39.8%)
- Hellas Verona (37.4%)
Salernitana (36.2%), Cagliari (31.5%), Monza (30.5%) ad Empoli (29.3%) all were chosen by the drop by significant proportions of the electorate, however.
[The Capocannoniere (Golden Boot) winner]
47.9% predicted Victor Osimhen would win the Capocannoniere for the second consecutive year, whilst Lautaro Martinez came second with 15.9% of the vote, …
Content cut off. Read original on old.reddit.com/…/the_rsoccer_predictions_survey_2…