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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/InVodkaVeritas on 2023-08-30 01:02:35.
I thought it would be fun to look at how the Pac-12 members who are joining new conferences next year compare in terms of talent acquisition. I previously had a post looking at Wins and Losses vs new conference members.
Before we get to the numbers, I want to recognize the Flaws up Front:
- This doesn’t account for Transfers. So some schools (USC/Colorado) who have had a bunch of transfer turnover are less relevant except to say that this is their general history of recruiting, not necessarily who is on their roster. Washington, Oregon, etc also have very important transfer players (Penix/Nix) making a huge difference on their teams.
- While talent acquisition has a correlation to success, it is only one facet of the story. For example Stanford and Nebraska do fairly well in recruiting but flaws in their coaching haven’t yielded results on the field. Meanwhile K-St. and Oregon State perform well above their recruiting ability. Coaching matters, just like transfers matter. Jim Harbaugh is a better coach than Oregon has had, so despite Oregon’s better recruiting Michigan has been the better team. So recruiting is important, but only one piece of the puzzle.
- I used a 5 year average because it is usually the maximum amount of time a player is on the roster. That said, Covid exemptions mean we have some 6 year players and players leaving school to go pro means we have some who only stick for 3 or 4 years. Take that as you will.
B1G
| Rank | School | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio St. | 290.72 | 300.95 | 321.78 | 294.92 | 262.30 | 294.134 |
| 2 | Oregon | 278.44 | 243.37 | 287.67 | 259.43 | 279.44 | 269.670 |
| 3 | Michigan | 245.13 | 262.13 | 262.15 | 262.70 | 278.08 | 262.038 |
| 4 | Penn St. | 270.10 | 278.66 | 219.13 | 255.84 | 272.68 | 259.282 |
| 5 | USC | 280.44 | 165.48 | 281.92 | 171.51 | 244.63 | 228.796 |
| 6 | Nebraska | 224.12 | 198.64 | 219.73 | 243.28 | 247.92 | 226.738 |
| 7 | Washington | 223.92 | 129.55 | 211.54 | 254.96 | 260.26 | 216.046 |
| 8 | Wisconsin | 188.21 | 194.42 | 243.00 | 225.72 | 223.14 | 214.898 |
| 9 | Maryland | 206.46 | 213.62 | 232.64 | 209.65 | 195.18 | 211.510 |
| 10 | Michigan St. | 224.87 | 221.83 | 194.42 | 193.30 | 221.18 | 211.120 |
| 11 | Iowa | 204.36 | 215.05 | 217.01 | 203.75 | 201.04 | 208.242 |
| 12 | UCLA | 206.15 | 175.37 | 210.04 | 208.34 | 203.36 | 200.652 |
| 13 | Minnesota | 201.22 | 189.38 | 203.38 | 199.34 | 198.47 | 198.358 |
| 14 | Purdue | 179.36 | 206.40 | 163.12 | 209.21 | 228.17 | 197.252 |
| 15 | Indiana | 177.60 | 219.80 | 181.32 | 177.37 | 206.27 | 192.472 |
| 16 | Northwestern | 200.11 | 191.62 | 187.59 | 190.68 | 192.16 | 192.432 |
| 17 | Rutgers | 190.36 | 209.71 | 203.17 | 172.87 | 178.18 | 190.858 |
| 18 | Illinois | 205.64 | 192.59 | 165.76 | 152.88 | 186.83 | 180.740 |
Remaining Pac-4
| Rank | School | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford | 200.94 | 229.74 | 197.73 | 238.44 | 244.61 | 222.292 |
| 2 | Cal | 162.74 | 175.53 | 212.04 | 198.00 | 200.89 | 189.840 |
| 3 | Wazzu | 184.96 | 175.48 | 176.96 | 180.62 | 178.29 | 179.262 |
| 4 | Oregon St. | 198.88 | 185.40 | 134.52 | 182.12 | 189.89 | 178.162 |
Big 12
| Rank | School | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TCU | 235.07 | 194.07 | 183.21 | 234.58 | 221.79 | 213.744 |
| 2 | Utah | 236.08 | 209.71 | 208.97 | 212.23 | 200.86 | 213.570 |
| 3 | Oklahoma St. | 193.19 | 217.39 | 210.62 | 195.37 | 206.55 | 204.624 |
| 4 | Baylor | 210.79 | 208.03 | 200.02 | 183.39 | 206.68 | 201.782 |
| 5 | West Virginia | 199.09 | 209.05 | 198.36 | 199.75 | 195.63 | 200.376 |
| 6 | Colorado | 219.75 | 192.38 | 172.66 | 202.38 | 199.29 | 197.292 |
| 7 | Iowa St. | 204.14 | 205.08 | 179.40 | 191.53 | 196.56 | 195.342 |
| 8 | Arizona St. | 201.23 | 120.17 | 183.94 | 231.10 | 222.71 | 191.830 |
| 9 | Texas Tech | 222.02 | 197.40 | 164.17 | 187.96 | 181.87 | 190.684 |
| 10 | Arizona | 204.72 | 224.38 | 162.43 | 174.76 | 186.44 | 190.546 |
| 11 | Cincinnati | 167.89 | 197.75 | 194.99 | 194.94 | 177.82 | 186.678 |
| 12 | K-State | 212.31 | 173.32 | 180.66 | 182.43 | 180.78 | 185.900 |
| 13 | UCF | 196.98 | 186.37 | 180.18 | 162.97 | 183.87 | 182.074 |
| 14 | Houston | 193.95 | 184.28 | 153.24 | 165.12 | 168.66 | 173.050 |
| 15 | BYU | 179.88 | 181.50 | 161.70 | 160.02 | 160.34 | 168.688 |
| 16 | Kansas | 169.88 | 106.28 | 174.63 | 178.97 | 180.78 | 162.108 |
Some things I notice:
- Ohio State truly stands above the rest in the B1G. 25 points above the next closest school.
- There’s a pretty tight grouping after that with Oregon, Michigan, and Penn St.
- Stanford would be the #1 recruiting school in the Big-12 in recruiting, but transfer rules at their school are holding them back from overall quality. Also, poor coaching and player development
- 8 schools in the B1G would be #1 in the Big-12.
- In the Big-12, the difference between TCU and Utah for #1 is razor thin, and the difference between #1 and #10 is smaller than #1 and #2 in the B1G.