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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/rain_parkour on 2023-08-23 14:17:48.
I made a similar post last season and thought I might do it again in these final days of the offseason. First off, congratulations to the UTSA Roadrunners, who in 2022 posted an 11-3 record to improve their all-time record from 0.485 to 0.514!
This season, 9 teams are within 12 games of crossing the .500 threshold; 5 teams currently under .500 can go above and 4 teams currently over .500 can go below. Below are the teams who can get their all-time record to more wins than losses. I have included what is the minimum record needed to reach this goal, as well as a probability that the team will get to that record (via Massey’s Monte Carlo simulation).
| Team | All-time Record | Necessary 2023 Record | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington State Cougars | 571-575 | 9-3 | 17.5% |
| Memphis Tigers | 523-533 | 12-0 | 0.9% |
| Louisiana’s Ragin’ Cajuns | 559-570 | 12-0 | 0.6% |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 76-86 | 12-0 | 0.04% |
| UAB Blazers | 168-179 | 12-0 | 0.03% |
Washington State sits as the only school with a >1% chance to cross .500 this season. South Alabama had a fantastic 10-win campaign last season to get them within striking distance of an all-time winning record. This season, the Jaguars will face a difficult first three games including Tulane and Oklahoma State standing in their way of going 12-0. Memphis is favored by Massey’s in all but two games, Missouri and Tulane. The Blazers and the Cajuns face a stiff challenge in Georgia and Minnesota respectively, but with winning seasons, they could have a realistic chance next season. Interestingly, there is a 44% chance that both teams are going to come into their week 3 matchup against each other undefeated, thus guaranteeing that the loser will sit under .500 for another season.
Four teams currently sit with more wins than losses, but with a bad enough season can drop below .500:
| Team | All-time Record | Necessary 2023 Record | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas Mean Green | 536-534 | 4-8 | 37.5% |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 645-641 | 3-9 | 2.2% |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 75-71 | 3-9 | 2.0% |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 627-618 | 1-11 | 0.3% |
UNT posted a 7-5 record in the regular season in 2022, but two losses in the CUSA championship and the Frisco Bowl still leaves the Mean Green 8 losses away from having more losses than wins all-time. The move to the AAC this season leaves them as the underdog in all but one conference matchup. The Wildcats face down a very tough SEC slate, but there is a 77% chance they start 4-0, thus guaranteeing an above .500 all-time record for another year. UTSA, being the newest member of the winner’s club, also moves to a difficult AAC this season. The Roadrunners don’t play an FCS foe this season and an OOC featuring Tennessee and Houston. Finally, Illinois only needs 2 wins to remain above .500 and going 8-4 or better (28.1% chance) would mean they couldn’t fall below next season either.
Records were sourced from Winsipedia, probabilities for 2023 records were sourced from Massey Ratings